West Ham vs Fulham Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Preview
NurPhoto/Getty. Pictured: Andres Pereira.
West Ham vs Fulham Odds
| West Ham Odds | +140 |
| Fulham Odds | +175 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +120 |
West Ham and Fulham meet for a London Derby with West Ham desperately needing three points.
The Hammers are in the thick of the race for European spots in the table, as they're trailing Newcastle and Manchester United by two points for sixth place. David Moyes' team is in a sandwich spot with their second leg Europa League tie with Leverkusen, so we'll see what kind of lineup they play on Sunday.
Fulham are coming off a 1-0 loss to Newcastle, but because of their improved form they do not have to worry about dropping into the relegation fight. Marco Silva has changed the way the Cottagers play, which has led to more exciting matches, which is what we are most likely to see on Sunday.
Here is how I am betting West Ham vs Fulham.
West Ham
West Ham have been a bit fortunate to be in the position that they are in the table. The Hammers have 48 points on the season, but based on Understat's expected points metric, they should only have 37.2 points.
The main reason they have over-performed so much is because of their offense. West Ham have been so good at capitalizing on the few transition opportunities they get a match. They have been basically been playing without a true striker because Jarrod Bowen has been in amazing form. However, Bowen is going to miss this match, which means Michail Antonio is going to play up top. With Bowen they were already the worst team the league at getting the ball into the penalty box once it reaches the final third, only having a 28.8% final third to box entry conversion rate.
West Ham's style of play is very conducive to giving up a lot of chances. David Moyes wants them to play a low defensive block to try and close off teams from playing through the center of the pitch. The problem is they aren't very good when sitting in their defensive block.
The Hammers have allowed the second-most box entries, third-most final third entries, and fourth-most shots in the Premier League this season. They have conceded a ton of expected goals as well, but have been saved by their goalkeeper Areola, who has the fourth-best post shot xG +/- at +4.1 on the year. The problem is that he is out until the end of April.
Fulham
Fulham have changed the way they play. They once were a passive low block, counterattacking style team, but now they are more willing to press high, be aggressive out of possession and play in up and down types of matches. Since the beginning of February, Fulham's PPDA is 11.5, when before they past two months it was 13.8.
To Marco Silva's credit, he recognized that and said it was only a matter of time before the regression hits them, so he changed his team more toward where the rest of the Premier League is going and has them pressing higher up the pitch to try to disrupt the opponents' build-up play. The result of that is Fulham are not playing some crazy high-event type matches, because by nature they are a team that is better when playing in transition, so a lot of their matches end up looking like a basketball game. Even though their last match against Newcastle ended 1-0, it was still very back and forth with 26 shots between the two teams.
Since the start of 2024, Fulham's matches are averaging 3.38 expected goals, not only because they've decided to play more open, but they don't have a really good striker giving them elite production. Fulham are now starting young Brazilian Rodrigo Muniz up top and he's been on fire. In his 13.3 90s, he is averaging 4.35 shots per 90 minutes and has already scored eight goals. Muniz is a real threat in transition compared to Raúl Jiménez, who was starting up top for the first part of the season, which is why Fulham matches have been more chaotic.
West Ham vs Fulham
Prediction
Fulham have actually been doing a good job controlling possession against three teams that play somewhat similar to West Ham. Against Sheffield United, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle, Fulham have held over 66% possession and basically lived in the opponent's final third. Given the way that West Ham set up out of possession, they are more than likely going to concede shots and chances, so Fulham could actually tilt the field on them even though they are on the road.
Without Bowen and Areola, West Ham are missing their two most important players and there is even a question if they will rest some of their other important players and prioritize the Europa League over the Premier League.
Since the beginning of February, Fulham are averaging 16.1 shots per 90 minutes, while West Ham are continually giving up 20+ shots a match out of their low block.
I have Fulham projected for 16.3 shots in this match, so I like the value on their shot total over.
Pick: Fulham Over 13.5 shots (-118 via BetRivers)
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