Sunday Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Prediction: Wolfsburg vs. RB Leipzig Betting Preview (August 29)
Martin Rose/Getty Images. Pictured: Wout Weghorst of Wolfsburg.
- Wolfsburg host RB Leipzig on Sunday in a matchup of Champions League hopefuls.
- The visitors no longer have the best defense in the Bundesliga, but their new attacking style is effective.
- Anthony Dabbundo explains below why he thinks the best value in this game is a play on the total.
Wolfsburg vs. RB Leipzig Odds
|RB Leipzig Odds||+110|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-125 / +105)|
|Day | Time||11:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Wolfsburg is the only team in the Bundesliga to win their first two matches of the season, after they defeated Bochum 1-0 on the opening day and Hertha Berlin 2-1 in the second match week of the season in come-from-behind fashion. They’ll face a significant step up in quality on Sunday though when Wolfsburg play host to RB Leipzig.
The Red Bulls suffered an opening-day hiccup at the hands of Mainz in a 1-0 lackluster defeat, before bouncing back to smash Stuttgart in Jesse Marsch’s first win as manager of Leipzig.
It’s a major clash with Champions League place implications down the road, as both teams finished in the CL places last season and appear to be challenging for those spots again.
Both managers are trying to implement more attacking styles this season, and neither team is likely to be as solid defensively because of it. Leipzig and Wolfsburg were the league’s two best defenses last year, but they are both playing more open and attacking styles that provide value on the over in this matchup.
Wolfsburg Prepping for Higher-Caliber Competition
Despite Wolfsburg’s spot atop the Bundesliga table, they’ve actually underperformed their expected goals for numbers in attack after a poor finishing day against Bochum on the opening day. Their underlying numbers are otherwise excellent: third in attacking third and penalty area touches and second most passes into the final third and penalty area.
Their defensive numbers started to fall off a bit at the end of last season, and while they have looked good early in the season, they haven’t faced a team with anywhere near the attacking talent that Leipzig can throw at them.
Wolfsburg are excellent at playing forward Wout Weghorst in behind, and his movement and production saw a significant increase last year. He has continued his success from last year into the opening two matches of the new season, and he’s a major reason why Wolfsburg were one of the best attacking teams on set pieces in the Bundesliga last season.
RB Leipzig’s Defense has Regressed
Leipzig didn’t just have the best defense in the Bundesliga last year, they had one of the best defenses in Europe’s top five leagues. But that was then, this is now. Manager Julian Naglesmann is gone, and Jesse Marsch is in charge.
Nagelsmann was less into the all-out pressing and more into complex possession structures, creation from the wings and defensive solidity. Marsch is much more into pressing, he has a front line who likes to run and pressure the ball, and his attack now has two excellent shot-getters in André Silva and Dominik Szoboszlai. Their defense has allowed at least one expected goal to Mainz and Stuttgart, neither of which are as good going forward as Leipzig.
The shot numbers allowed are up, the game control numbers are slightly down, and the team doesn’t have the same level of individual defensive talent since Dayot Upamecano left for Bayern.
Betting Analysis & Pick
My projection for this game has 2.72 goals to be scored in this game, and my projected line is Leipzig +112. I show no value on the three-way money line, but the total is lined like these two teams are playing last season under their previous managers without fans — not as they’ll be on Sunday, where both managers have more attacking patterns they’re implementing.
Wolfsburg’s attack should be able to break through for chances and really test Leipzig’s new defense, while they’ll be challenged defensively for the first time.
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-125 or better)