Wolves vs West Ham Odds, Pick: A Same-Game Parlay for Saturday
Rob Newell/Getty. Pictured: James Ward Prowse.
Wolves vs West Ham Odds
| Wolves Odds | +160 |
| West Ham Odds | +162 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
Wolves will try to halt a three-match winless run in all competitions when they host a West Ham side that hasn't won in the league in more than a month.
Eleventh-place Wolves have been depleted by injuries, particularly in the attack, which was evident again in a grinding 1-1 midweek draw away to Burnley.
Seventh-place West Ham will probably be the happier of these teams with their midweek efforts, having held Tottenham Hotspur to a 1-1 draw at home.
The Hammers earned a decisive 3-0 win in the previous meeting between these league foes in December. Now with the end of the season in sight, the return fixture could prove massive in the race for European places, with these teams separated by five rungs in the table but only three points.
Read on for my Wolves vs West Ham prediction.
Wolves
With Matheus Cunha and Hwang Hee-Chan both sidelined recently, Wolves went through a stretch where they were missing some 43% of their total goal-scoring production from manager Gary O'Neil's starting XI. And that absence has definitely been in evidence in the rate at which Wolves have created chances.
With both men out of the XI, the Midlanders failed to generate more than 1.5 xG in any of the last five Premier League games, despite playing two of those matches against teams in the relegation places. Before that stretch, they had gone above 1.5 xG in 10 of their first 25 league games.
Winger Pedro Neto has also been out for the latter portion of that stretch to add to the suffering and is expected to continue to be sidelined on Saturday. But Cunha could return to a starting role after he came off the bench late at Burnley to halt his hiatus at just under two months.
Saturday will be Wolves' first time facing a top-half opponent since suffering a 4-3 defeat to Manchester United at the start of February. Overall, O'Neill's men have been pretty good in those fixtures, taking points five out of eight times and winning three of them.
West Ham
With West Ham's six-match winless run in the league earlier in 2024, the most identifiable cause was the absence of Brazilian central midfielder Lucas Paqueta. The current four-match slide may be more just a case of having to give some credit to the quality of the opposition.
Sure, David Moyes' squad should have earned a better result in the 2-2 draw against Burnley that began the slide. But the Hammers performed plenty adequately in the other three games, all coming against teams in the top eight spots in the table. They earned points in two of them and probably would have done so in all three if not for a highly disputed penalty awarded to Newcastle that turned the tide in what finished a 4-3 Toon victory.
That said, Moyes will certainly be happy to welcome midfielder Edson Alvarez back into the fold after he missed the last two matches due to earning his 10th yellow card. West Ham's Premier League loss rate increases to 50% when the Mexican international doesn't feature.
Jarrod Bowen is still one of the Premier League's top scorers with 15 goals. But he has found the net only twice in his last 13 league appearances for the Hammers. One of those was his first career PL hat trick in a win over Brentford.
Wolves vs West Ham
Prediction
Wolves' record against better sides at home is pretty impressive, but what's notable from a betting perspective is how those games have played out: Both teams have found a goal in all eight of those matches, and the total has gone above 2.5 goals in all but one. The two teams combined to create at least 2.8 xG in all but one of those matches.
In other words, O'Neil isn't the kind to let an opponent's place in the table influence his approach to home matches. The result has been pretty entertaining stuff for neutrals, and pretty fruitful wagering for those who back goals. Perhaps Wolves' injuries could change that posture, but Cunha's return could be enough to bring some feeling of normalcy to the attack.
And West Ham have been a better counter-attacking team than defending team for the last couple of years of Moyes' tenure, which shows up in particular on the road. Both teams have scored on 11 occasions and over 2.5 goals has caused 12 times in the Hammers' 15 league away games.
At even money and implied 50% probability, the parlay here on a yes wager on both teams to score and the total going above 2.5 goals is a pretty obvious play. Overall, it's cashed 62% of the time when accounting for home-away splits, and the rate is even higher when adjusting for the strength of the opponent.
It's still good value in the territory of -115 to -120, where some other books have it.
Pick: Over 2.5 and yes – both teams to score, same-game parlay (+100 via BetMGM)
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