One man walked off Centre Court with blood soaking through his sock. The other asked a ball girl to help him pull off a prank, then spent his press conference talking about golf jackets.
Three days into the men's draw at Wimbledon, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic have taken almost opposite routes to the third round: yet on Polymarket's "2026 Men's Wimbledon Winner" market, both remain the two names everyone else is chasing.
Sinner Remains the Clear Favorite Despite a Shaky Start
Sinner's title defense didn't begin cleanly.
He needed five sets and three and a half hours to get past Miomir Kecmanovic in the opening round, dropping two sets and nearly becoming the first defending Wimbledon champion to lose in Round 1 since 2003. A torn toenail left a mark on his shoe, and he later admitted he had to reset himself mentally.
Two days later, he looked far steadier, navigating a pair of high-stakes tie-breaks during a grueling two-and-a-half-hour battle against Portugal's Nuno Borges. The victory also secured his place in his country's tennis history, officially overtaking Nicola Pietrangeli as the Italian player with the most men's Grand Slam match wins.
None of that has shaken the market.
Rather than play a grass warm-up event after an early exit at Roland Garros, Sinner chose to train on hard courts and fit in a late exhibition at Hurlingham.
Traders seem to be reading that decision as recovery, not risk, especially with Carlos Alcaraz, the only man to beat Sinner in a Grand Slam final since 2024, sidelined by a wrist injury and out of the draw.
Djokovic's Grass Pedigree Keeps Him Priced Second
If Sinner's week has been about survival, Djokovic's has been about theater.
The 39-year-old opened with a four-set win over China's Wu Yibing that ran past three hours and included six break points saved in a single game, then followed it up Wednesday with a near-flawless straight-sets win over Stefanos Tsitsipas, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2. He capped it by teasing a ball girl over a shirt tag and joking that he'd challenge Rory McIlroy for his green jacket: in tennis, not golf.
Djokovic beat Sinner in a five-set, four-and-a-half-hour final at the Australian Open in January, a performance that broke his multi-match skid against the world No. 1 and one that the Serbian icon later hailed as his definitive performance of 2026.
He's chasing an eighth Wimbledon crown, which would tie Roger Federer's tournament record, and a 25th Grand Slam singles title, despite a mid-season injury that cost him months of matches and preceded a five-set loss to Joao Fonseca at Roland Garros. His next test is France's Arthur Rinderknech.
Behind the two of them, Alexander Zverev, fresh off his maiden major at Roland Garros, holds the market's third spot, with Daniil Medvedev and a cluster of others further back.
Whichever version of survival wins out, Sinner grinding through five sets or Djokovic joking his way past three-hour matches, the two remain on a path that could put them back on Centre Court, this time with a Wimbledon title, not just bragging rights from Melbourne, on the line.
