Lorenzo Musetti and Rafael Jodar will face off in a quarterfinal matchup at the Washington 500 hard court ATP event, the Mubadala DC Open.
Musetti is the No. 4 seed in this event, while Jodar defeated eighth-seeded Arthur Fils in the opening round in D.C.
Find my ATP Mubadala DC Open preview and Musetti vs Jodar prediction for Friday below.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Rafael Jodar Player Prediction
- Musetti vs Jodar Pick: Lorenzo Musetti ML +148
My Musetti vs Jodar best bet is on Musetti to win straight up. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live ATP odds page.
Musetti vs Jodar Odds
| Lorenzo Musetti Odds | +148 |
| Rafael Jodar Odds | -182 |
| Spread | Musetti +2.5 (-112), Jodar -2.5 (-118) |
| Over/Under | 22.5 (-112o / -118u) |
| Musetti-Jodar H2H | 0-0 |
| Time | How to Watch | Friday, 6 p.m. ET | Tennis Channel |
| Odds via FanDuel | |
Musetti vs Jodar Predictions, Betting Analysis
By: Christopher Gimino
At just 19 years old, Jodar is one of the future stars of tennis. That's been backed up by his results this season, including quarterfinal appearances at Roland Garros, Rome and Madrid, a semifinal in Barcelona and a title in Marrakech.
With a 26-11 overall record on the season, it's no wonder Jodar is favored in this match despite not being seeded.
However, most of the Spaniard's success this season has come on clay, which raises questions about how he'll perform on the hard courts in D.C. (albeit he already beat Fils here).
Meanwhile, he'll face off against Musetti, who's played only 20 matches this year and missed Roland Garros and Wimbledon due to injury. The Italian also favors clay, but he has far more experience on hard courts given his more veteran status on tour.
But ultimately, the reason I'm taking Musetti on the moneyline is because of the current edge my model is projecting. I have Musetti moneyline as a Grade A edge (6.8% overall) with a 51% of the bet hitting.
Here's how the model works:
For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability. First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can’t fake elite form).
Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player’s real serve/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree — Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.
Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.
From there, the same win probability is used to grade three markets — Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games — by comparing the model's estimate against what the market is actually offering. The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the “edge” you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.
Ultimately, this is the breakdown for this particular match.
Back the experienced Musetti to continue his good form in his return from injury.
Pick: Lorenzo Musetti ML +148
