ATP Gijon & Florence Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Felix Auger Aliassime & Andrey Rublev

ATP Gijon & Florence Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Felix Auger Aliassime & Andrey Rublev article feature image

BSR Agency/Getty. Pictured: Felix Auger-Aliassime celebrates after defeating Andrey Rublev in Rotterdam.

With the ATP 250 events in Florence, Italy and Gijon, Spain set to wrap up, American tennis fans may want to tune into these finals on Sunday morning.

With Sebastian Korda in the Gijon final and J.J. Wolf looking for his maiden ATP Tour title in Florence, we could see a pair of American title winners in the span of a few hours.

Unfortunately, I'm not sold either of them emerge victorious come Sunday, but let's dig a little more into each matchup.

 Andrey Rublev (-225) vs.  Sebastian Korda (+165)

 7:30 a.m. ET, Gijon

The first of the two finals kicks off nice and early in Spain as Andrey Rublev goes toe-to-toe with Sebastian Korda.

It's the 22-year-old American's third career final at this level and he's in tough one against one of the game's better players.

Equipped with solid athleticism and a big game from the baseline, Korda certainly has several promising aspects to his game. However, a relatively underpowered serve — especially for someone his size — has held him back from really bursting onto the scene.

Against Rublev, that's a going to be a tough weakness to overcome.

One could make the case that the Russian has one of the best forehands on the ATP Tour and his serve finds him far more cheap points. Over the course of the past 52 weeks, Rublev has actually hit aces at an 11.5% rate on hard courts — over 3% higher than Korda's ace rate — and he wins nearly 80% of points behind his first serve, a number that is about seven percentage points better than his Sunday opponent.

Rublev may be somewhat erratic from the baseline, but with his forehand being able to hang with Korda, a much stronger service game, strong movement, athleticism and far more experience on this kind of stage, I'll back Rublev to make it a dozen career trophies on Sunday.

Lay the games with the Russian on Sunday. If you can get an even -3, that would also be a solid bet in the -110 to -115 range.

Pick: Rublev -2.5 games (-130 via FanDuel)

Felix Auger Aliassime (-500) vs.  J.J. Wolf (+340)

 11 a.m. ET, Florence

Those who know me know I enjoy betting underdogs in tennis as much as anyone. However, Sunday is not a day in which I will doing so.

I'll go all chalk with Felix Auger Aliassime against Wolf in Italy.

Once again, we find the favorite with far more experience on the big stage than his American counterpart.

Much has been made about Auger Aliassime's struggles in previous finals, but he's well positioned to win his second career tournament.

With an elite serve, big forehand and an improving defensive game, it's no wonder Auger Aliassime has made another deep run this week and was seen fairly often in the second weeks of the year's four grand slams.

Playing against a young, less consistent, power-oriented Wolf, Auger Aliassime finds himself in the rare position of being the more consistent player in a match — while still having just as big of a game as the guy on the opposite side of the net.

Auger Aliassime has also had his backhand hold up really well this week — something that has been a major liability in the past. He's also been much better at hitting his forehands at bigger targets and not getting impatient looking to end points too quickly (something that led to him sailing shots a foot long in the past).

With his typical weaknesses under control this week, the Canadian should cruise to victory and continue to put the narrative that he can't win matches in finals to rest.

Pick: Auger Aliassime under 21.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.