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Australian Open Betting Odds, Picks & Best Bet for Cam Norrie vs. Sebastian Korda (Jan. 16)

Australian Open Betting Odds, Picks & Best Bet for Cam Norrie vs. Sebastian Korda (Jan. 16) article feature image
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Julian Finney/Getty. Sebastian Korda hits a backhand at the ATP Next Gen Finals.

Cam Norrie vs. Sebastian Korda

Norrie Odds -174
Korda Odds +148
Over/Under 38.5
Time 10:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

*Note: Match start time above subject to change.

One of the most fascinating stylistic matches of the Australian Open first round comes Sunday in a matchup between Cam Norrie and Sebastian Korda.

The British No. 1 had an incredible end to his 2021 season, winning the Indian Wells Masters event and competing well with Casper Ruud as an alternate in the ATP Finals. His breakthrough season was one of the biggest on tour, but he hasn’t translated that momentum into early 2022 success.

Playing for Team Britain at the ATP Cup, Norrie posted three losses, winning just a lone set against Taylor Fritz. While all his opponents posed stiff tests, including Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime, it was a disappointing open to his campaign.

Korda was another player that had a breakout season, winning his first title on the ATP Tour and reached two other finals, in addition to three wins at Wimbledon. While he battled injuries at the US Open and in the fall of 2021, he appears to be ready to go in his 2022 campaign.

The American is one of the most exciting prospects the country has on the men’s side, and at just 21 years old, Korda has a chance to really impose himself on tour. With easy power all over the court, Korda is a fun player to watch and has the pure skillset of a modern player. Big hitting at all times is supported by a heavy serve and aggressive tactics.

Norrie has a far different game, and while he can’t match Korda’s near three-to-one ace-to-double fault ratio on hard courts, his two-to-one clip isn’t bad, nor is his 79 percent service games held rate last year in the same conditions.

He won’t be generating free points with the ease of Korda, but what he can do is coax errors out of the young ball-striker if his level does drop or if he comes into the match with rust.

Norrie is a steady player that relies on a flat backhand that doesn’t have much margin over the net, but his forehand is very loopy and can be tricky for players at times.

The duo met in Del Ray in January of last year, with Korda picking up a two-set victory. Norrie was limited by a 44 percent second-serve points won rate, but that wasn’t the same high-level player we saw toward the end of the season.

Betting Value

The conditions of this matchup favor Korda to a significant extent. Norrie’s title at Indian Wells came on courts that were historically slow, plus he struggled far more on indoor courts that play a lot faster. A 25-11 outdoor hard-court record in 2021 was balanced by a 9-7 indoor hard-court record.

That isn’t to take anything away from his growth, but in faster conditions, Norrie struggled. While Korda’s 3-3 record against lefties on tour is a bit lower than his 61-percent win rate against righties, the losses came against top-level players in Rafael Nadal, Denis Shapovalov and Ugo Humbert. He even took sets off of the latter two.

With better health and favorable conditions, I feel as though the price on Korda is well worth it considering the form we saw from Norrie at the ATP Cup.

Pick: Korda (+148)

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