Australian Open Odds, Predictions, Picks: How to Bet Matteo Berrettini vs. Andy Murray (January 16)
William West/Getty. Pictured: Matteo Berrettini.
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The Australian Open rolls on with the second day of play on Monday night, and there are plenty of captivating matchups which we can find some betting value in.
Two of them involve some past semifinalists here in Melbourne. Matteo Berrettini will be taking on the great Andy Murray in a match which may offer some value on the total, and Aslan Karatsev is undervalued against a player he’s beaten here at the Australian Open before in Grigor Dimitrov.
Let’s get into how to bet these contests.
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Australian Open Predictions & Picks
Grigor Dimitrov (-240) vs. Aslan Karatsev (+195)
7 p.m. ET
These two first met in the 2021 Australian Open, when Karatsev was right in the middle of his breakout performance. Dimitrov handled him for a set before Karatsev fought back to take the second, at which point Dimitrov’s back gave out and led to a very awkward final couple of sets.
Dimitrov was able to get his revenge months later at a small tournament out in San Diego, but I think it’s Karatsev’s time to return the favor.
The Russian has been missing for the better part of a year now, losing match after match, but it seems he’s found his game again. Though his time in Pune came to an end in the semifinals when he lost to eventual champ Tallon Griekspoor, Karatsev dazzled with his shot-making ability in wins over Pablo Andujar, Tim van Rijthoven and Pedro Martinez.
We’ve hardly seen Dimitrov play this season; he turned up at the United Cup and split a pair of matches. While I haven’t been too impressed with his level, I don’t really think it will matter in this match.
Karatsev plays incredibly aggressive tennis, going for winners almost the entire match. This was what led him to such great heights a couple of years ago, and it’s also what’s caused him to suffer some bad losses. With that said, he’s been playing a far cleaner brand of tennis and executing on his big game, which leads me to believe he’ll be lethal on these fast courts in Australia.
I think this price is not properly reflecting Karatsev’s level at the moment, and I recommend you take a bite here on arguably the juiciest underdog of the entire first round.
Pick: Karatsev ML (+195 via DraftKings)
Matteo Berrettini (-350) vs. Andy Murray (+270)
10 p.m. ET
From one appealing underdog to an unappealing one, I really have little faith that Murray can turn this into a match against Berrettini, who went to the semifinals here a season ago and loves to play on fast surfaces.
The Italian’s been looking incredible of late, and while he suffered a couple of losses to Stefanos Tsitsipas and Taylor Fritz at the United Cup, it says more about the level those two guys are playing at than it does about Berrettini.
He is serving well and hitting his spots, and his lethal forehand has finally found its range again. When we saw him last season after he missed time with a wrist injury, that simply wasn’t the case.
That’s ironically the only time these two have played in the last couple of seasons. They squared off in Berrettini’s first tournament back, which took place on the grass at Stuttgart, and then again a month or so later at the US Open. In neither scenario did Berrettini have his A-game.
With the Italian looking dangerous once more and stepping on to some incredibly quick-playing surfaces, I think it’s going to be difficult for Murray to make any noise.
Pick: Under 38.5 Games (-115 via DraftKings)