Thursday US Open Picks, Odds | Lorenzo Sonego vs Jannik Sinner, Michael Mmoh vs John Isner (August 31)
Pictured: Lorenzo Sonego. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
The second round of the US Open comes to a close Thursday, when we'll be treated to two incredible matches between fellow countrymen who know each other well.
Let's get into how to bet Michael Mmoh vs. John Isner and Lorenzo Sonego vs. Jannik Sinner. Here are my Thursday US Open picks.
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Thursday US Open Picks
Michael Mmoh (+100) vs. John Isner (-120)
Unlike most players on tour, John Isner is at his most dangerous when he's got no form. It seems like every season he begins to heat up on the hardcourts just prior to the US Open, but at his age, and with his body, it almost always costs him dearly. Isner's won just one match at the US Open since 2019, and it's due to the fact that he simply tuckers himself out by the time he gets here.
Well, Isner has played just 12 times all season as he gets set to retire and has played just five matches in the lead-up to the US Open. I think five matches in a month is the sweet spot for the greatest server of all time. He's done just enough against some good opponents to build the confidence necessary to make one final run in Queens.
The draw couldn't have broken any better for Isner, who was able to face a clay-court specialist in the first round and now draws a favorable matchup against Michael Mmoh.
Mmoh has had a decent season and finished 19-14 at all levels. He also had a win over Alexander Zverev at the Australian Open in January. While that sounds like a monumental result in retrospect, Zverev was nowhere near 100% in that match and I'm not ready to use that as justification for why Mmoh could win this match. I also won't read into his first-round win over Karen Khachanov as the recently-injured Russian likely wouldn't have played had he not had so many ranking points to defend.
Mmoh is a fine baseliner, but with a lack of weapons and inconsistent play on big points I'm not sure he's ready to compete with Isner here.
Pick: Isner Moneyline (-120)
Lorenzo Sonego (+425) vs. Jannik Sinner (-600)
I had the pleasure of going to Court 4 on Tuesday and watching a very high-level match between Nicolas Moreno De Alboran and Lorenzo Sonego. I figured the American qualifier, who's done a ton of winning this year on the Challenger level, would have a fair chance against Sonego, given the Italian's tumultuous season.
Well, Moreno De Alboran played an excellent match, but was rolled in straight sets. Sonego played a near-perfect match, bringing his trademark relentless baselining to the table and rarely missing shots. He keeps his ball very low and serves with a ton of pace, something that has led him to plenty of success off of clay over the years.
I think this is a very dangerous spot for Jannik Sinner, someone whose confidence is probably too high for his own good right now. He drew an incredibly weak first-round opponent in Yannick Hanfmann and will have to raise his level for this match if Sonego's Tuesday performance is any indication.
The two have met twice, both this season, and despite Sonego's poor form for the majority of the year, he still managed to take their most recent encounter on grass to three sets. However, he ultimately dropped to 0-2 against Sinner.
I think this match will be hotly contested given Sonego's level at the moment and Sinner's rocky history at Grand Slams. While he's posted good results in his young career, no slam has come without a few adventures, including last year's US Open, which saw him drop plenty of sets to players much worse than Sonego.
We should be in for a real treat with this match, and I expect it to be a marathon. I may even play an alternate total and bet on a five-setter.
Pick: Sonego +2.5 Sets (-125)