US Open Best Bets, Picks, Odds for Zverev vs Tabilo & More — 9/5

The third round of the US Open continues on Saturday, with seeded matchups taking center stage on Arthur Ashe and Louis Armstrong.

Our staff is targeting three matchups, including Alexander Zverev vs. Alejandro Tabilo and more.

Continue reading below to find our US Open predictions and picks below.

US Open Predictions, Picks, Odds — Saturday, September 5

Fritz vs Cerundolo Odds

By: Tudor Cosma

With Novak Djokovic and Arthur Fils eliminated, Jannik Sinner out, Carlos Alcaraz still not 100% and Alexander Zverev using up a lot of court time already, Taylor Fritz can be considered one of the favorites to win the US Open.

Realistically speaking, from this half of the draw, I think only Zverev can beat him, and in a potential final against Alcaraz or Shelton, he starts with a real chance.

His form is currently excellent. He didn't lose a set in his first two matches in New York, serving ideally while putting pressure on his opponents on return.

On the other side, Francisco Cerundolo is seeded, but he doesn't seem to be in great form. He struggled in his opening match in New York — beating Jan-Lennard Struff in five sets — and lost in his opening duel in Cincinnati (Nuno Borges) and Montreal (Alex Michelsen) in straight sets.

He has big problems on his own serve and isn't superb on hard courts.

I don't think he can win more than one set, if he even does that.

I'll take a stab at Fritz covering the set spread of -2.5, meaning he wins in straights.

Pick: Taylor Fritz Set Handicap -2.5 (+110)

Blockx vs Cobolli Odds

By: Chris Gimino

Flavio Cobolli isn't in the same conversation as Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. That isn't up for debate.

However, he doesn't receive media attention like young emerging stars Rafael Jodar or Joao Fonseca even though he's ranked higher and has been much more consistent this season.

Cobolli is currently sixth on tour and is 31-18 on the season. He reached the quarterfinals of Wimbledon and the finals at Roland Garros, and he had a great run at Cincinnati, making the semis after beating Tommy Paul, Jodar and today's opponent, Alexander Blockx.

While Blockx may be looking for revenge for that loss, my tennis model says it won't come in this match. The model shows a strong 7.1%, A-grade edge on Cobolli winning straight up and a 6.6%, A-grade edge on Cobolli covering the -1.5 game spread.

So, you're not blindly backing a random model, here's how it comes to the conclusions/picks:

For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability. First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can’t fake elite form).

Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player’s real serve/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree — Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.

Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.

From there, the same win probability is used to grade three markets — Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games — by comparing the model's estimate against what the market is actually offering. The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the “edge” you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.

Ultimately, I like Cobolli's experience and consistency more in this spot. He's been reliable in majors and he has a nice edge in break points saved, a weakness of Blockx.

Pick: Flavio Cobolli ML -116 | Flavio Cobolli Game Spread -1.5 (+110)

Zverev vs Tabilo Odds

By: Ryan Minion

Following two scares in the opening two rounds, Alexander Zverev still enters this match as a massive -770 favorite to advance to the US Open Round of 16.

The fact that Zverev played two five-setters to open this event is certainly some cause for concern entering a matchup against a red-hot Tabilo, who dispatched his first two opponents with relative ease.

Tabilo boasts a highly versatile skillset, with the southpaw renowned for his knack for mixing it up with a power forehand and a more tactical approach closer to the net.

The Chilean youngster is remarkably athletic and is one of the more underrated all-court players in the world, making it very difficult for his opponents to shorten rallies.

In order to limit Zverev's huge first serve and heavy ground strokes from the baseline, the 29-year-old lefty will need to heavily rely on his versatility, constantly mixing it up with his lefty slice.

Both players hold service at a very impressive rate, which will very likely lead to a ton of games being played in this match — and even more so after having seen Zverev struggle considerably in the first two rounds.

As my primary betting angle, I favor backing the over in this match.

Despite Zverev's recent struggles, he's the far superior player in this match, which is why I'll also be taking more of a value approach by targeting the exact set score market.

I'm willing to take a shot on Zverev to win in four sets at a solid +220 price tag.

Pick: Over 34.5 | Alexander Zverev to Win 3-1 (+220)