US Open Best Bets, Picks, Odds for Paul vs Alcaraz, Shelton vs Tsitsipas & More — 9/6

The Round of 16 at the US Open starts on Sunday with action from Arthur Ashe and Louis Armstrong.

Our staff is targeting three men's matches for our best bets, including Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev vs. Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Continue reading below to find our US Open predictions and picks below.

US Open Predictions, Picks, Odds — Sunday, September 6

Paul vs Alcaraz Odds

By: Tudor Cosma

Paul hasn't had any easy matches in this US Open, advancing past Alexander Bublik, Dino Prizmic and Coleman Wong in a total of 13 sets.

However, Paul is one of the most elite athletes on tour, and he won't be intimidated by Alcaraz on Sunday, especially given that he's beaten the Spaniard twice before.

This is obviously Paul's home slam, so I think he'll win at least one set. But I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he won the match outright.

Alcaraz has only lost one set in this US Open, but he hasn't had a difficult road, and he hasn't been that impressive in his return from his injury.

For example, against Yibing Wu, he looked unsure and nervous on the court. He only had 21 winners and committed 33 unforced errors, showing that he may not be 100% yet.

This match will truly be a litmus test for Alcaraz. He struggled against Paul at the Australian Open, and that's when Alcaraz was fully healthy.

I don't expect Paul to lose by more than five games, and he could win outright.

Pick: Tommy Paul Game Spread +5.5

Medvedev vs Tiafoe Odds

By: Ryan Minion

Medvedev, the 2021 US Open champion, has been on an absolute tear over the first three rounds, with the Russian dispatching each of his opponents in straight sets.

I expect Medvedev to stick to his typical game plan, heavily relying on his huge first serve and exceptional defensive baseline position. The 30-year-old boasts one of the best return games in the world, comfortably standing well beyond the line.

While the Russian is more of a tactical counter-puncher, Tiafoe has one of the most dominant forehands on tour, with a quite unique looping angle motion on his groundstrokes that makes it very difficult to return.

Medvedev holds a 6-2 head-to-head matchup history over the American, successfully neutralizing Big Foe’s first serve by getting under the ball and resetting the point into more of a neutral baseline exchange.

Medvedev is also very difficult to break on the fast moving hard courts like we see in New York, which should result in each of Tiafoe’s break point opportunities holding the utmost significance.

Though Tiafoe has looked very impressive over his first few matchups in New York, this a very tough stylistic matchup for him. He'll definitely need to feed off the crowd’s energy for some momentum in the match’s biggest points.

For Tiafoe to pull off the upset, he must use his drop shot far more frequently while also relying on his serve-and-volley approach to force Medvedev out of his comfort zone.

Despite how much I respect Tiafoe’s game, it appears Medvedev has finally reverted back to his previous remarkable form that had led to him winning the US Open five years ago.

Thus, I favor backing Medvedev on the moneyline, though I would be far from surprised if this match goes four or five sets.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev ML -143

Shelton vs Tsitsipas Odds

By: Chris Gimino

At one point, Tsitsipas was one of the great, talented youngsters on tour, a player with a bright future as a potential multi-Grand Slam champion.

Fast forward a few years, and the Greek has reached just two Grand Slam finals (2021 French Open, 2023 Australian Open) and is outside the top 50 in the world.

This tournament has represented some throwback play from Tsitsipas, though, as he upset both Arthur Fils and Jiri Lehecka on his way to the Round of 16.

While this is a great turnaround from the Greek, my tennis model says the run ends here. I'm taking Shelton -1.5 as an alternate game spread, as the model says it represents a 5.4%, B-grade edge.

To better understand my model, here's more information about it:

For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability. First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can’t fake elite form).

Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player’s real serve/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree — Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.

Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.

From there, the same win probability is used to grade three markets — Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games — by comparing the model's estimate against what the market is actually offering. The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the “edge” you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.

Ultimately, yes, the -225 juice isn't a great valued price tag. However, this is an edge I can't pass up, even if I use it as a parlay leg with another pick in this article.

Put your trust in this American.

Pick: Ben Shelton Alt Game Spread -1.5 (-225)