US Open Best Bets, Picks, Odds for Wu vs Alcaraz & More — 9/4

The third round of the US Open begins on Friday with some intriguing matches across the grounds.

However, we're looking for one thing: betting value. And there's plenty of that, according to our staff. In fact, we have four picks (including two A+ edges) for you to dive into.

Continue reading below to find our US Open predictions and picks below.

US Open Predictions, Picks, Odds — Friday, September 4

Wu vs Alcaraz Odds

By: Chris Gimino

While Carlos Alcaraz doesn't look unbeatable in his return from his wrist injury, signs have been positive for the Spaniard. He defeated Roman Safiullin (who's beaten Alcaraz previously) in straight sets and rallied down one set to zero to top a feisty opponent — Jaime Faria — in Round 2.

The more matches Alcaraz plays the more likely he is to get more and more comfortable.

And that's what my model is picking up on. In fact, my tennis model says that this pick — Alcaraz -7.5 — represents an A+, 8% edge on Friday.

My model isn't random, too, In fact, here's how it reaches its conclusions:

For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability. First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can’t fake elite form).

Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player’s real serve/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree — Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.

Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.

From there, the same win probability is used to grade three markets — Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games — by comparing the model's estimate against what the market is actually offering. The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the “edge” you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.

The juice of -140 on DraftKings or -135 on FanDuel isn't great, but it still represents a significant edge that isn't often seen on the board.

Pick: Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread -7.5

Vacherot vs Tiafoe Odds

By: Chris Gimino

As the United States searches for its first Grand Slam title on the men's side since Andy Roddick in 2003, every match featuring a contender for the remainder of this event holds significant weight.

That's especially the case with Alcaraz still recovering from a wrist injury, Jannik Sinner out, Novak Djokovic eliminated and Alexander Zverev nearly losing in Round 1.

Things are almost as wide open as they'll ever be.

And Frances Tiafoe is one of the Americans that has a great chance to capitalize. He's a two-time semifinalist here, and the crowd absolutely adores him.

My model also loves him in this spot, as Tiafoe covering the -2.5 game spread against Valentin Vacherot represents a A+, 8% edge.

For more information on my model, read the Alcaraz section above.

Again, the juice is not great at -140 at DraftKings, but this is another significant edge, our second of the day.

Ride Tiafoe and the crowd to a victory.

Pick: Frances Tiafoe Game Spread -2.5

Bublik vs Paul Odds

By: Sean Paul

Last year, Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul delivered one of the most memorable matches of US Open. In a thrilling five-setter, Bublik sent Paul packing from his home slam.

This time, Paul enters as a -182 favorite. However, Bublik appears to be in strong form, beating American JJ Wolf and the crafty Frenchman Adrian Mannarino in his first two rounds.

Bublik feels a bit underpriced here. The gap between Paul and Bublik, who each tend to implode at times, isn’t that high.

The reason I want the plus money with Bublik is how good of a server he is. He easily has one of the top serves on tour, winning 78% of his first serves (4th in ATP) while maintaining a strong 288.5 serve rating (10th).

On the flip side, Paul is more of a baseline player with the quickness to extend rallies. He ranks 23rd in serve rating and wins 74.5% of his first serves (36th).

Bublik isn’t just a serve bot; he also can hang in rallies and loves deploying a drop shot, which plays well off his dynamite serve because the returner often plays deep.

I love Bublik here. Give me the underdog.

Pick: Bublik ML +139

Shelton vs Shapovalov Odds

By: Tudor Cosma

Ben Shelton is an excellent player, as he recently won the Montreal Masters. Many voices see him reaching the final at the US Open, taking into account that Alcaraz isn't 100% and Djokovic and Arthur Fils have already been eliminated from this half of the draw.

However, Shelton didn't win either of his first two matches (against Tallon Griekspoor and Hubert Hurkacz) impressively. His serve wasn't ideal, as he gave up breaks relatively easily and sent fewer aces than we expected (12 vs. Griekspoor, six vs. Hurkacz) in long matches.

Denis Shapovalov is a great talent and always capable of surprises. He not only has a very good serve through which he records aces at a high rate, but he's also very skillful on the return and doesn't allow many aces.

He had 19 against Miomir Kecmanovic and 11 against Luca Van Assche.

If your book offers Shapovalov to record more aces over Shelton, take that. If it doesn't, then I'm comfortable taking a stab at the Canadian to record 15+ aces at bet365 (+175) for a small price.

Pick: Denis Shapovalov to Record 15+ Aces (+175, bet365)