US Open Best Bets, Picks, Odds for Auger-Aliassime vs Khachanov & Zverev vs Halys

The second round of the US Open continues on Thursday with Naomi Osaka, Coco Gauff and Taylor Fritz headlining the players in action on Arthur Ashe.

However, our very own Chris Gimino has a tennis model that's spotlighting two matches on Thursday: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Karen Khachanov and Alexander Zverev vs. Quentin Halys.

Continue reading below to find our US Open predictions and picks below.

US Open Predictions, Picks, Odds — Thursday, September 3

Auger-Aliassime vs Khachanov Odds

By: Chris Gimino

In what is considered likely the most evenly-matched duel on the two main courts (Ashe and Louis Armstrong) on Thursday, Felix Auger-Aliassime goes head-to-head with Karen Khachanov.

While the spread currently sits at -3.5 at DraftKings in favor of Auger-Aliassime, this seems a bit steep. However, the alternate line of -1.5 in favor of the Canadian gives us a strong 6.9% edge (A grade), according to my tennis model.

To get clarity on how my model receives this edge, here's the full explanation on it:

For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability. First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can’t fake elite form).

Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player’s real serve/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree — Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.

Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.

From there, the same win probability is used to grade three markets — Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games — by comparing the model's estimate against what the market is actually offering. The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the “edge” you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.

Yes, -240 doesn't seem like a strong value play in this particular situation, but there's always the option to play it in a parlay with the below match (if your book offers that option).

Trust that Auger-Aliassime will win this match by two games or more rather than taking the Canadian on an even less valuable -283 (at the time of writing) moneyline.

Pick: Felix Auger-Aliassime Alternate Game Spread -1.5 (-240)

Zverev vs Halys Odds

By: Chris Gimino

Alexander Zverev barely escaped his first-round match against Lorenzo Sonego, as he needed a five-set rally to advance to Round 2.

While it doesn't get easier for the German, my model (I explained how it works above) says that Zverev can breathe a sigh of relief in Round 2 and is expected to cover the -5.5 game spread vs. Quentin Halys.

In fact, Zverev said this after the marathon Round 1 victory:

Overall, I think it was a great, tough battle, and I think it was a match that I needed after the last couple of weeks.

That doesn't sound like a player who's putting his head down after a shaky-ish performance.

In fact, my model shows a pretty strong 6.2% edge (B+ grade) on this pick (and also the under 38.5 games, which supports a Zverev victory more so than Halys).

In another primetime match on Ashe, expect Zverev to cruise this time.

Pick: Alexander Zverev Game Spread -5.5