Koerner: How I’m Betting Tuesday’s Sparks-Mystics Matchup

Jun 18, 2019 10:00 AM EDT
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Photo Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Candace Parker

  • In Tuesday's WNBA affair (10:30 p.m. ET, CBS), the 4-3 Washington Mystics will travel to L.A. to take on the 4-3 Sparks.
  • Using his WNBA power ratings, Sean Koerner gives his projected spread and total for the game so bettors can find immediate value when sportsbooks post odds.

Editor’s note: This story was published before odds posted, but features Koerner’s projected spread and total, and what he’s looking to bet.

Candace Parker is set to make her 2019 debut against the Mystics. While she may not be in her prime at 33 this season, I still have her being worth around 2 to 2.5 points on the spread. She’s likely going to be eased back from her hamstring injury, so for her return I’m giving the Sparks a 1.5-point boost.

She’s solid on both ends of the floor, so her impact on the total is negated a bit. The Sparks are eager to brush off their embarrassing seven-point loss to the Liberty at home. Look for the entire team to be up for this game and motivated by Parker’s return.

The Mystics suspended Emma Meesseman due to passport issues a few games back. She’s their second-leading scorer, and I had originally pegged her loss being worth only 1 to 1.5 points on the spread and total for the Mystics.

The Mystics were able to beat up on the two worst teams in the league without her in the lineup but have struggled in their last two games against better competition. The under has hit with ease in their last three, so it’s a trend worth factoring in against the Sparks.

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