Paraguay and Turkiye meet tonight in World Cup Group D action at 11 p.m. ET at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. The match will broadcast on FS1.
Turkiye is a +105 favorite on the moneyline and Paraguay is a +270 underdog. The over/under is 2.5 (+105o / -135u).
Let's get into my Turkiye vs Paraguay predictions and picks, plus the latest World Cup odds, betting trends, weather forecast and more.
Turkiye vs Paraguay Predictions, Picks
- Pick: Turkiye Over 1.5 Goals (+120 at bet365)
My Turkiye vs Paraguay best bet is Turkiye to score over 1.5 goals. Find the best World Cup odds by checking our live soccer page.
Turkiye vs Paraguay Odds
| Paraguay Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -135 | 2.5 105o / -135u | +270 |
| Turkey Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -105 | 2.5 105o / -135u | +105 |
Turkiye vs Paraguay Preview
After suffering heavy defeats in their opening matches, this game is essentially an elimination match for both nations. Turkiye and Paraguay both sit on zero points, and another loss would almost certainly end their journey in the tournament. Turkiye's probability of advancing to the knockout stage has fallen from a pre-tournament high of 83% down to 48%, while Paraguay's has dropped to 35%. The pressure is immense.
On paper, Turkiye possesses the more talented and experienced squad. Their primary issue against Australia was not a lack of creativity but a failure in execution. Their 30 shots produced only 1.33 xG, highlighting a tendency to take low-percentage shots from distance. Real Madrid's Arda Güler took eight shots himself, but most were from outside the box. Coach Vincenzo Montella may look to create higher-quality chances to solve this problem.
Paraguay, meanwhile, looked out of their depth against the USA. They fielded their youngest starting lineup at a major tournament since 1998 but lacked intensity, managing just 35% possession and a meager 0.47 xG. This will be the first-ever competitive meeting between the two countries, with their only prior encounter being a 0-0 friendly draw in 1995. This Paraguay vs Turkiye pick is based on the significant gap in performance metrics from their opening games.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Turkiyevs Paraguay picks.
Turkiye vs Paraguay Picks
- Turkiye Over 1.5 Goals (+120 at bet365)
- Half Time/Full Time – Turkiye/Turkiye (+220 at bet365)
Turkiye's opening 2-0 loss to Australia was a statistical anomaly. They registered an incredible 30 shots, with eight on target, yet failed to find the back of the net.
It was a historic level of offensive inefficiency, but the underlying process suggests a team capable of creating numerous opportunities. The challenge now is to add a clinical edge against a vulnerable opponent.
Paraguay's defense offers the perfect opportunity for Turkiye to correct their finishing woes. In their 4-1 defeat to the USA, Paraguay conceded four goals from just six shots on target.
The USA generated only 1.35 expected goals (xG), indicating that Paraguay’s goalkeeping and defensive organization were well below the required standard for this level of competition. If Turkiye can replicate their high shot volume, they are poised to capitalize on Paraguay's defensive frailties.
Given the stakes, backing Turkiye to lead at both halftime and full-time also presents value. Paraguay was overwhelmed early by the USA, trailing 3-0 at the interval.
Turkey needs to win and improve its goal difference, creating a strong incentive for a fast start. They attempted 10 shots in the first half against Australia, and a similar attacking intent against a less organized Paraguay side could see them take control of the match from the outset.
Turkiye vs Paraguay Props
- Arda Guler to score from outside the box (+1100; bet365)
Paraguay committed 17 fouls in a 4-1 defeat to the USA and received five yellow cards, so expect them to make a lot of fouls in this one as well. Dangerous free kicks from the right side will be a chance for Guler to score a screamer.
Out of his six goals in the Champions League and La Liga last season, three came from outside the box.
Turkiye vs Paraguay Projected Lineups Tonight
Turkiye predicted lineup (4-2-3-1)
Goalkeeper: Cakir
Defenders: Celik, Demiral, Bardakci, Kadioglu
Midfielders: Calhanoglu, Yuksek; Guler, Kokcu, Yilmaz
Forwards: Akturkoglu
Paraguay predicted lineup (4-2-3-1)
Goalkeeper: Gill
Defenders: Caceres, G. Gomez, Alderete, Maidana
Midfielders: Bobadilla, Cubas; D. Gomez, Enciso, Almiron
Forwards: Sanabria
Turkiye vs Paraguay Betting Trends
Turkiye vs Paraguay Weather Forecast
According to Accuweather, it will be around 67 degrees and mostly clear for the start of tonight's match.
