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For Wednesday's Wild Card Round, I'm bringing you four bangers for two great matchups: White Sox vs. Astros and Cubs vs. Padres.
Read on for my 4 MLB Home Run Picks Today.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of Grant Neiffer's top home run prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5:00 PM | |
| 5:00 PM | |
  | 10:00 PM | |
| 10:00 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
White Sox vs Astros Prediction, Pick
This isn't a great spot, but these odds are really good.
Astros starter Hunter Brown is a below-average matchup for righty power, allowing a 0.80 HR/9 this season.
With the Crawford Boxes, this ballpark is an upgrade for righty power, and Miguel Vargas has been great this season, with 33 homers in 159 games.
I have the true odds for the White Sox 3B at around +550.
Pick: Miguel Vargas Home Run
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White Sox vs Astros Prediction, Pick
Another not-so-great spot with odds that make up for it.
Against lefty power hitters, Brown has been slightly below average this season, allowing a 1.01 HR/9.
On the other hand, Murakami has been one of the league's best home run hitters, with 35 dingers in 127 games.
Even with the below-average matchup, I still have Murakami's true odds at around +420.
Pick: Munetaka Murakami Home Run
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Cubs vs Padres Prediction, Pick
Kevin Gausman is a good pitcher, but he's struggled heavily this season with righty power.
The Cubs starter has allowed a 1.75 HR/9, 44.3% fly-ball rate, and 38.7% hard-contact rate.
Manny Machado hasn't been great this season, but the power is still there, and I have his true odds at around +400.
Pick: Manny Machado Home Run
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Cubs vs Padres Prediction, Pick
We haven't seen a ton of Padres SP Nick Pivetta this year, but going back to the beginning of last season, he's allowed a high 1.45 HR/9 to righties.
Alex Bregman started off the season slow, but he's been great in the second half, with 19 HRs in 61 games.
I have the true odds for the Cubs 3B at around +500.
Pick: Alex Bregman Home Run
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