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Day 2 of the Wild Card Series is here, and boy, has it been an exciting start.
Runs have dominated the postseason, with all four games finishing over their run total. Favorites have also continued to chug along, going 3-1. The only underdog to pull off a win? The Chicago White Sox.
We’ve got four more games on the docket this Wild Card Wednesday, and I’ve found three player props in the evening games in which I see value.
Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks for Wednesday, September 30. Also, be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today
- Yordan Alvarez Home Run (22%, Kalshi)
- Sonny Gray 6+ Strikeouts: No (56%, Kalshi)
- Kevin Gausman 5+ Strikeouts: No (52%, Kalshi)
White Sox vs Astros Predictions
Sean Burke became an overnight sensation thanks to his legendary quote: “This is my life. No family – no girl, no kids. This is all I do.”
While he’s been much improved this season, I’m hesitant to back the right-hander in a road playoff game. His 8.3% barrel rate ranks in the bottom 35% of all qualified pitchers, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher. That’s not a great recipe for keeping the ball in the yard.
His biggest issue has come against left-handed hitters, where he’s allowed a 9.1% barrel rate. Nearly 70% of the home runs Burke has allowed have come against lefties.
Enter Yordan Alvarez.
While I also like Alvarez to walk in this game, his home run odds are simply too long to pass up. Could the White Sox pitch around the leading American League MVP candidate and force someone else to beat them? Well, they certainly should.
Alvarez ranks in the 97th percentile or better among all qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (53.8%), barrel rate (16%), xSLG (.636), xBA (.318) and average exit velocity (94.4 mph). There is literally no weak spot in this superstar’s game.
It would be wise for Burke to walk Alvarez, which he has done three times in six total plate appearances. But if he does try to attack Alvarez, the advantage is firmly in favor of the slugger.
The White Sox also emptied the tank with Hagen Smith and Grant Taylor yesterday to secure the win — their two best bullpen arms. The rest of the bullpen is extremely vulnerable, providing another reason I like Alvarez to do some damage here if he isn’t pitched around in each at-bat.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run (33%, Kalshi)
Red Sox vs Yankees Predictions
The leash for a starting pitcher is extremely tight in the postseason, especially in an elimination game.
The Red Sox were rocked in Game 1 against the Yankees, turning to Sonny Gray with their season on the line. Gray is coming off a career year at age 36, finishing the season with 18 wins and a 2.72 ERA.
The underlying metrics do point toward Gray being a bit fortunate this season, though. His 3.87 xERA is more than a full run higher than his actual ERA, while the right-hander ranks around league average in hard-hit rate allowed (38.3%), xBA (.249) and strikeout rate (21.8%).
Given that this is a do-or-die game and the Yankees are expected to unleash a lefty-heavy lineup against Gray, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Chad Tracy presses the panic button early.
The Red Sox have three quality left-handed arms waiting in Jake Bennett, Ranger Suárez and Garrett Crochet, with the latter reportedly healthy.
Assuming the Yankees go lefty-heavy, Tracy has an opportunity to force Aaron Boone into an early decision: empty his bench or stick with the left-on-left matchup.
For what it’s worth, Gray’s numbers also take a step back the second time through the order, with opponents hitting .267 and posting a .735 OPS, compared to .242 and a .692 OPS the first time through.
Gray is not a strikeout pitcher, and given the parameters of this game, I’m happy to fade the right-hander here.
Pick: Sonny Gray 6+ Strikeouts: No | 56% at Kalshi
Cubs vs Padres Predictions
In the same vein as the Sonny Gray fade, we’re going right back to it in Wednesday’s finale between the Cubs and Padres.
Kevin Gausman takes the mound in a do-or-die game, one where the Cubs have all of their high-leverage arms available following San Diego’s blowout win last night. Gausman has really struggled since joining Chicago, throwing just 50.1 innings over nine starts.
The right-hander owns a 4.83 ERA with the Cubs and has allowed 11 home runs, continuing to struggle to keep the ball in the park. It’s also the fourth straight season in which Gausman’s hard-hit rate has eclipsed 40%, another sign of decline for the 35-year-old.
In a do-or-die playoff game, Gausman has no room for error, similar to Gray. Craig Counsell is likely to have a short leash on the veteran, and given yesterday’s disastrous start, he can ill afford another mistake.
The Padres are also a difficult team to strike out in general. They have a 21.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, with just one player in the expected lineup carrying a strikeout rate above 23%.
That player is Jackson Merrill, who gets the positive split against right-handers, striking out just 23.3% of the time compared to 26.2% against southpaws.
The Cubs have to throw the kitchen sink at the red-hot Padres bats here, and if that means using all of their high-leverage arms — along with Shota Imanaga or Clay Holmes — so be it.
Pick: Kevin Gausman 5+ Strikeouts: No | 52% at Kalshi
