The World Cup knockout stage continues today with three matches: Spain vs. Austria, Portugal vs. Croatia and Switzerland vs. Algeria
Our team of experts has come up with a pick for each of Thursday's three Round of 32 games, so let's dive into today's World Cup best bets.
Today's World Cup Best Bets, Expert Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the World Cup matchups that our staff is targeting from today's slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:00 p.m. | |
  | 7:00 p.m. | |
  | 11:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our World Cup odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spain vs Austria: Spain to Win to Nil (-111)
Spain boasts the best defensive record in the tournament, having allowed a minuscule 0.54 expected goals against (xGA) across their first three matches. No other team has conceded fewer expected goals or faced fewer shots, which highlights La Roja's defensive superiority heading into the elimination rounds.
Spain's high-press system is a key factor.
With a passing-allowed-per-defensive-action (PPDA) rate of just 7.8, they rank second in the tournament in pressing intensity. This suffocating pressure forces turnovers high up the pitch and prevents opponents from building any sustained offensive rhythm. Austria will find it incredibly difficult to create scoring opportunities against this organized unit.
Furthermore, Spain has historically dominated possession in major tournaments, a trend that has continued in 2026 with an average of 69.4% ball control. This level of control limits the opposition's time on the ball, naturally reducing their chances to score.
Pick: Spain to Win to Nil (-111 at bet365)
Croatia vs Portugal: Both Teams To Score – Yes (-122)
Portugal have scored in 15 of their last 19 competitive fixtures since Euro 2024, averaging an impressive 2.42 goals per game. Despite managing six goals in the group stage, underlying metrics suggest they overperformed their expected goals (xG) by 1.81, raising questions about their clinical finishing against tougher opponents. However, the sheer talent in their squad should be enough to create chances.
Croatia has also been reliable in front of goal. They have been shut out only three times in their last 19 matches and scored in all three of their group games in this tournament. This attacking consistency is matched by a defensive frailty that could be their undoing. They conceded a combined 4.39 expected goals against (xGA) in the group stage, a worrying statistic ahead of a clash with Portugal's attack.
This trend of high-scoring games is particularly pronounced in the knockout rounds for Croatia; seven of their last eight knockout-stage matches at the global tournament have featured both teams scoring.
Pick: Both Teams To Score – Yes (-122 at bet365)
Algeria vs Switzerland: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-111)
The selection for Both Teams to Score is compelling for several reasons. In the 2018 and 2022 tournaments, the first knockout round saw both teams score in 75% of the matches. This trend reflects the high-stakes nature of these games, where a single goal can force the opposition to push forward aggressively. The 2026 tournament has already been high-scoring, with over 55% of all matches seeing both teams find the net, and an average of 2.93 goals per game.
Switzerland's recent form strongly supports this pick. They have seen both teams score in all three of their group stage matches and in eight of their last ten fixtures overall. Algeria has also been involved in goal-filled contests, with their last two group games—a 2-1 win against Jordan and a 3-3 draw with Austria—ending with goals from both sides.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-111 at bet365)
