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We’ve got a lot going on this week!
Hurricane Isaias is on its way, and you should definitely be checking a bunch of good sources looking for accurate weather forecasts for the games this weekend. We’ve got some elite matchups this week, too, and there's a lot on the line!
We had another solid 2-1 week on the college football team totals selections in Week 5. The record for the season now stands at 9-6. On to the Week 6 selections.
Let's dive into our NCAAF picks and college football predictions for this week's team totals.
Iowa State vs BYU Pick
Iowa State has been better than expected. Head coach Jimmy Rogers is clearly a really good coach, and the Cyclones are a physical bunch.
Iowa State is coming off a hard-fought home win over West Virginia, 45-42, last weekend. It was a back-and-forth affair where the teams combined for nearly 1,100 yards. I don’t think this game will be anything like that contest.
BYU is the fifth-slowest team in the country in terms of seconds per play. The Cougars will also be without running back LJ Martin here, but I still expect them to run the football a lot and take up a lot of time on their drives.
Quarterback Bear Bachmeier is an underrated runner, and the Cougars are really strong in the trenches.
Iowa State scored only 13 points against Iowa and 17 against Utah. It recorded 4.8 yards per play and 4.3 yards per play in those two games. BYU plays significantly slower than those two teams.
The Cougars defense also ranks 12th in the nation at preventing explosive plays.
Jalen Raynor and the Iowa State offense have an extremely tough task in front of them in this late game at Provo, where the fans will be rocking on Friday night. I don’t expect it to go well for Iowa State.
Pick: Iowa State Team Total Under 17.5
Confidence Rating: B
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Kent State vs Western Michigan Pick
Everyone remembers Western Michigan from its season opener against Michigan that ended in plenty of controversy. The Broncos haven’t been playing very well since that season opener, though.
Western Michigan squeaked past Rice on the road and was blown away at home by a good Boise State team. WMU also went on the road and had to rally late to beat lowly Buffalo, 20-17, last weekend.
Western Michigan ranks bottom-10 nationally in pace of play.
The Broncos' passing game has been terrible thus far. Western Michigan ranks 110th nationally in yards per passing attempt and sits 125th in passing explosiveness.
The run game has been decent, but it hasn’t been spectacular. Western Michigan ranks 96th in the nation in yards per carry and just 112th in rushing explosiveness.
Kent State’s defense isn’t good, but it's far worse against the pass than the run. The Golden Flashes sit 59th in PPA/Rush allowed and 136th in passing explosiveness allowed, but Western Michigan isn’t likely to be the team that takes advantage of that weakness.
The Flashes sit 117th in the nation in pace of play. Kent State has been trying to run the ball a lot more of late, so the clock should keep moving throughout this one with both teams snapping the ball slowly and running the football.
Western Michigan should win here, but I don’t think it scores as many points as expected.
Pick: Western Michigan Team Total Under 29.5
Confidence Rating: B+
San Diego State vs Oregon State Pick
The San Diego State Aztecs picked up one of the most misleading wins of the season last weekend against Texas State. The Bobcats rolled up 565 yards of offense compared to only 239 yards for San Diego State, but the Aztecs still won the game.
Oregon State plays at an above-average pace. The Beavers are also one of the best-kept secrets in college football.
Head coach JaMarcus Shephard is doing a tremendous job leading this team.
Quarterback Braden Atkinson is putting up video game numbers as well, with 10 big-time throws and just four turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
Jesse Legree is also a top-five-rated PFF wide receiver. Legree has 339 yards after catch this season, which is the second-most of any receiver in the country.
San Diego State had an elite secondary in the past under defensive coordinator Rob Aurich, but Aurich went to Nebraska, and a bunch of the Aztecs' most talented defenders went along with him.
San Diego State ranks 113th in passing yards per game allowed. The secondary has really struggled with tackling, and Oregon State is the type of offense that can make it pay for those missed tackles in open field.
Pick: Oregon State Team Total Over 34.5
Confidence Rating: B
