Michael Calabrese

Happy to fade Kentucky after that miracle win over LSU.

I liked UF to win outright before Vandy went down to Texas, now I’ll just take the points. Florida has shown me high-end play against elite teams this year, one-point loss at Duke, 4-point neutral site loss to UConn where they led with under 8 to play. They have the elite rebounding on both ends, to hurt the Commodores on the glass. They don’t give up much inside the arc, they just need to avoid a 15 3PT night from Vandy to hang around. And we need to acknowledge for a moment this Vandy schedule to this point. 133rd Non-Con SOS, and Net SOS is 35th. Florida’s is 5th. The Dores haven’t played in a sweaty, end of game situation since mid-December. Florida has the receipe if they kill them on the glass.

No Bittle, no Shelstad, Ducks are cooked. Plus Michigan hasn’t covered in three straight, this is a neck crack opportunity for the Maize & Blue 〽️

I’ve always been a Randy Bennett fan. I like the way they play, how he builds his roster, I love Murauskas, and how rare is it to have two legit seven footers like Wessels and McKeever? But I also circle games where the Gaels are one possession dogs, dating back five years Bennett is 7-2-1 ATS in these spots. It’s always an autobet for me and will continue to be.

Villanova went from a tire fire under Neptune to a team I fully expect to be dancing come March, Willard was the right hire and they just look organized and displined on both ends. But St. John’s has the tempo to shake them up, Zuby is playing like the Big East POY and they have four or five guys who could lead them offensively on a given night. The discovery of Lefteris Liotopolous could be a big game changer for Pitino. With the exception of mop up duty he wasn’t playing in 2025, but since the calendar flipped Slick Rick is letting him stay on the floor and bomb threes. Last four games, he’s 9-for-17 from downtown. Also this is at the old Wells Fargo Center in South Philly, not as many friendly Main Line whistles as when they’re playing on campus and there will be lots of SJU fans on hand.

BYU is rolling offensively averaging 93 ppg across their last eight. And any case you make for under here is really predicated on Grant McCasland’s track record and not this year’s Red Raider team. He is a great defensive coach, but they’re playing faster, allowing opponents to get up over 60 shots per game, their defensive rebounding has slipped outside the top 100, it’s one of the reasons why over has cashed in 5 of the Raiders last 8 games and four of those overs cruised past by double digits. I’d go up to 163 here, these guards are just too good and Toppin should pour in 20+ again.

The enduring image of Beck’s career will be that game-winning scramble against Ole Miss. He still finished that game with -6 rushing yards. That’s kind of his thing this season, 7 games he’s finished with negative rushing yardage, and he’s gone under 3.5 rushing yards in 9 of his 15 starts. Protection wise, Miami has an elite offensive line, but he’s still taken 8 sacks during this playoff run. And that was with optimal game scripts for the most part. Miami has trailed for all of 12:32 during their playoff run. This Indiana run against Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon, 11 sacks, and opposing QBs finished with -48 rushing yards. And let’s look at some pocket passer comps Luke Altmyer - Sacked 7 times, -27 rushing Julian Sayin - Sacked 5 times, -29 rushing Ryan Brown - finished with 3 rushing yards Game flow I see Miami being forced into far more known passing situations than they have been on this winning streak. If Indiana can get home 3 times, I just don’t see how he’s going to generate 20 positive rushing yards to get this over the number.

We’ve seen these Miami slow starts. Last four games, dating back to the regular season finale against Pitt, 6 first quarter points in total. Shannon Dawson wants to establish the run, you can see Mario fist-pumping on the sideline as they push the pile from a three yard run into an eight yard run. It’s offensive line coach porn, that’s how I’d describe their scripted stuff. And when they flip on the Oregon tape, they desparetely want to avoid throwing the game away like Dante Moore did with an opening play pick six that put them behind the Eight Ball. I feel confident in a conservative, set the tone on the ground opening script, which makes early explosives less likely. Speaking of explosives, I think a truly elite offense could take advantage of IU’s defense in the big play department, but that’s not what we have here with Miami. They never break rushing explosives, 133rd in Rush EPA, they had 4 runs of 30+ all season long. Now they had more success creating big plays through the air, but Indiana is buttoned up there, 4th in coverage, 2nd in tackling, and they are 1st in HAVOC. The scary part of this total is obviously Indiana. 35 against Alabama, 56 against Oregon. But this is the same team that was held to 13 against Ohio State and 20 by Iowa, a pair of top 10 defenses. That’s what Miami is, an elite, make you earn every yard kind of defense. @_Collin1 brought up a great point before the Ole Miss game about the field, about pass rushers not getting the best footing, and yes Miami only got home once. But they still generated 17 pressures, a season-high on Chambliss, forced more TWPs than BTTs. And similar pressure is what caused Mendoza to go from a Heisman winning game changer to a game manager against Iowa and Ohio State. Iowa heated him up 12 times, 2 sacks. Ohio State 13 pressures, 3 sacks. I have a ton of faith in this Miami defensive line to continue to be game plan wreckers. Last piece, these defensive coaching staffs have shown up huge in the second half this season. Indiana 2nd Half scoring defense, 1st, 5.2 ppg Miami (FL) in the third quarter 10th, 2.9 ppg Remember that Hetherman worked for Cignetti at James Madison where he won the AFCA’s Assistant Coach of the Year. He knows how Cig preps and adapts. So I think this game is brutal in the trenches, both QBs are heated up more than they have been in recent games, and it’s a chess match in the second half with points coming at a premium.