Michael Calabrese

One of the shortest road trips you’ll see, less than an hour driving out to the Northshore of Long Island. The Seawolves are in a tailspin, lost 6 of 7 straight up and ATS. Those losses by an average margin of 13 points per game. Hofstra meanwhile, eight straight wins, just cracked the KenPom top 100, and Cruz Davis is one of the best offensive engines in the sport. Averaging nearly 22 and 5 on 44% shooting from deep. I think Geno Ford is coaching for his job here and nothing seems to be working. They want to win games with their defense, but this team just flat out can’t shoot.

Just the fourth road game for the Bows this season. They’re 2-1 ATS on those Mainland Trips, nearly upset Oregon. If they don’t allow an offensive rebound and put back in the final four seconds, they narrative on them is different. But what they still have is an elite defense. They’re second nationally in eFG%, Johnson/Rouhliadeff/Nemeikša (Nemb-ee-sha) give them rebounding and rim defending. Cal Poly isn’t good on the glass, and incredibly three-point dependant, you can see that in their shooting stats. When you’re 314th in shooting % but 219th in Shooting efficiency, you’re relying on the threes to bail you out. And then there’s Hamad Mousa, the best scorer in the Big West. He’s averaging 27.2 ppg across their last five on 17 shots per game. They’re 3-1-1- ATS in those game. Full stop, I trust Eran Ganot and this staff to make life harder on Mousa. Dre Bullock will draw him first and he has the size at 6’6” and the athleticism to be a nusiance. Per Evan Miya he’s the third best wing defender in the Big West.

Grabbing more Bows at this discounted spread 🌈

The enduring image of Beck’s career will be that game-winning scramble against Ole Miss. He still finished that game with -6 rushing yards. That’s kind of his thing this season, 7 games he’s finished with negative rushing yardage, and he’s gone under 3.5 rushing yards in 9 of his 15 starts. Protection wise, Miami has an elite offensive line, but he’s still taken 8 sacks during this playoff run. And that was with optimal game scripts for the most part. Miami has trailed for all of 12:32 during their playoff run. This Indiana run against Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon, 11 sacks, and opposing QBs finished with -48 rushing yards. And let’s look at some pocket passer comps Luke Altmyer - Sacked 7 times, -27 rushing Julian Sayin - Sacked 5 times, -29 rushing Ryan Brown - finished with 3 rushing yards Game flow I see Miami being forced into far more known passing situations than they have been on this winning streak. If Indiana can get home 3 times, I just don’t see how he’s going to generate 20 positive rushing yards to get this over the number.

We’ve seen these Miami’s slow starts. Last four games, dating back to the regular season finale against Pitt, 6 first quarter points in total. Shannon Dawson wants to establish the run, you can see Mario fist-pumping on the sideline as they push the pile from a three yard run into an eight yard run. It’s offensive line coach porn, that’s how I’d describe their scripted stuff. And when they flip on the Oregon tape, they desparetely want to avoid throwing the game away like Dante Moore did with an opening play pick six that put them behind the Eight Ball. I feel confident in a conservative, set the tone on the ground opening script, which makes early explosives less likely. Speaking of explosives, I think a truly elite offense could take advantage of IU’s defense in the big play department, but that’s not what we have here with Miami. They never break rushing explosives, 133rd in Rush EPA, they had 4 runs of 30+ all season long. Now they had more success creating big plays through the air, but Indiana is buttoned up there, 4th in coverage, 2nd in tackling, and they are 1st in HAVOC. The scary part of this total is obviously Indiana. 35 against Alabama, 56 against Oregon. But this is the same team that was held to 13 against Ohio State and 20 by Iowa, a pair of top 10 defenses. That’s what Miami is, an elite, make you earn every yard kind of defense. @_Collin1 brought up a great point before the Ole Miss game about the field, about pass rushers not getting the best footing, and yes Miami only got home once. But they still generated 17 pressures, a season-high on Chambliss, forced more TWPs than BTTs. And similar pressure is what caused Mendoza to go from a Heisman winning game changer to a game manager against Iowa and Ohio State. Iowa heated him up 12 times, 2 sacks. Ohio State 13 pressures, 3 sacks. I have a ton of faith in this Miami defensive line to continue to be game plan wreckers. Last piece, these defensive coaching staffs have shown up huge in the second half this season. Indiana 2nd Half scoring defense, 1st, 5.2 ppg Miami (FL) in the third quarter 10th, 2.9 ppg Remember that Hetherman worked for Cignetti at James Madison where he won the AFCA’s Assistant Coach of the Year. He knows how Cig preps and adapts. So I think this game is brutal in the trenches, both QBs are heated up more than they have been in recent games, and it’s a chess match in the second half with points coming at a premium.