Michael Calabrese

The amount of missing offensive talent in this game is staggering.

I love both of these defenses, we get a big bump from the Ohio State pace (dead last, slower than Army) and Miami barely plays any faster (29.8 seconds between plays, 129th). Miami hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in regulation in seven straight games. Ohio State’s defense is probably the best in the country. You can’t create explosives, they tackle at an elite level, disguise at an elite level, make it nearly impossible to methodically drive the ball or score in the red zone. One of the lowest red zone score rate allowed in the last five years, only 33% of red zone drives are finishing in the paint. Under porn is built on 27 yard field goal attempts, oh and BTW Miami’s kicker is struggling, Carter Davis went 1-for-4 on FGs in College Station. I also like 1Q under. Under 9.5 Ohio State D - (1st, 1.3 ppg) Miami D - (6th, 2.5 ppg) Ohio State O - (57th, 5.9 ppg)
Miami O - (76th, 5.2 ppg)

As someone who is a bit of a history buff when it comes to college football, I can tell you that this spread is fairly unprecedented. The last time the top-ranked team in the country faced an opponent ranked ninth or lower in a bowl game, as a favorite of less than a full touchdown, was the Sugar Bowl…in 1962. The Alabama Crimson Tide closed as a six-and-a-half point favorite over the Arkansas Razorbacks. In a defensive struggle, Alabama outlasted Arkansas 10-3, winning outright and covering the spread. The country hadn’t come to grips with the fact that Alabama was a juggernaut under Bear Bryant. This was his first of six national titles in Tuscaloosa. And moving forward, oddsmakers prohibitively priced Bryant’s teams. If you’re trying to figure out where we are in the Curt Cignetti timeline, we’re still in that “prove it” area. This explains why a deeply flawed, three-loss team, like Alabama, is catching less than a touchdown in the Rose Bowl against the mighty Indiana Hoosiers. Calling IU mighty just two years ago was a cheap punchline. This is the same Indiana outfit that has won exactly one bowl game since 1989, and that postseason exhibition was so prestigious it has changed names, I kid you not, 11 times (Copper Bowl). The Hoosiers don’t just deserve more respect in the market; they’ve earned it. Cignetti’s squad ran the table in the Big Ten, beat Oregon in Autzen, and Ohio State in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title. The IU offense is perfectly balanced, finishing first in Rushing Success Rate and second in Passing Success Rate with a Heisman-winning quarterback running the show. The Hoosier defense just held Ohio State 27 points below their season average, and enter the CFP with the most Havoc-producing defense in the sport. Pick a defensive stat, and Indiana is likely inside the top ten. That’s bad news for a one-dimensional Alabama offense. The Crimson Tide running game has fallen off a cliff, and even the return of Jam Miller couldn’t right the ship. After years of game-breaking running backs lining up in the Alabama backfield, the Tide are now 110th in rushing explosives this season. With defenses putting the Alabama running game in a box, Ty Simpson has been under fire. Alabama’s QB1 has taken ten sacks in the past three games, while feeling pressure on 41% of his dropbacks over that stretch. So why the sudden love for Alabama as a dog? They just pulled off an impressive comeback win in Norman in the first round of the College Football Playoff. They erased a 17-0 deficit, albeit with massive help from the Sooners. The OU special teams came unglued at the worst possible time, allowing a blocked punt while their Lou Groza award-winning placekicker missed a pair of field goals. And with a chance to break the game wide open before halftime, a miscommunication between John Mateer and Keontez Lewis resulted in a game-changing pick-six for Alabama’s Zabien Brown. That’s a handful of high-leverage plays breaking in favor of Alabama. Alabama pulled a rabbit out of its hat on Friday night, which is why this number is still available below the key number of seven. I wouldn’t hesitate to grab IU-6.5 because I believe we’ll look back at Indiana’s 2025 and wonder why oddsmakers were so slow to adapt to the fact that Indiana isn’t a party crasher; they’re a juggernaut.