Michael Calabrese

This playoff run has been fueled, in part, by spite. Lane Kiffin’s absurd exit has motivated this team to play its best football, but it has also created an unprecedented distraction for Ole Miss’ coaching staff. Five assistant coaches, who remained with Ole Miss through their upset of Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, are now down in Baton Rouge with Lane Kiffin as full-time LSU staffers. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. is headed for LSU as well, but he’s worked out a deal with Kiffin and his Ole Miss bosses to remain with the Rebels until this playoff run is done. That kind of coaching brain-drain is significant. I believe these coaching issues will play a part in an Ole Miss loss, but it’s really the mismatch in the trenches that seals its fate. The Hurricanes have the nation’s best pass rush, a havoc-minded back seven, and a ball-hawking mentality (25 takeaways, 9th). Trinidad Chambliss has played at an All-American level this season, but he was bothered by disruptive fronts on two occasions (Wazzu, Florida). Wazzu’s pass got home three times while creating 11 pressures. Florida sacked Chambliss five times on ten pressures. As a double-digit underdog, the Gators led Ole Miss in the fourth quarter, and Wazzu nearly pulled off a seismic upset, falling by 3 as 33-point underdogs. The point being, if you can consistently pressure Chambliss with four rushers, the Ole Miss offense is containable. Defensively, Ole Miss should get bullied on the ground. The Canes just ran for 153 yards on an elite Ohio State run defense. Mississippi’s run defense ranks 65th and a troubling 92nd in Line Yards. Prior to a fourth-quarter injury, Georgia’s Nate Frazier was killing the Rebels on the ground (5.7 ypc). His absence on the final drive may have cost Georgia a shot at a national title. The Canes Mark Fletcher is in line for a massive game, which would be in line with his ascending play this season (6th-rated RB per PFF). The Rebels' magical season ends in Glendale. I would play Miami up to the edge of a full touchdown at -6.5.

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