Nick Giffen

I was gonna take under 46.5 full unit last night but thought maybe I could wait for a 47 Im an idiot and its now 45.5 so a smaller bet under Weather Bad QB coverage matchups for both QBs Bears D a level up since getting healthy and acquiring CJGJ No odunze/Burton WR cluster loss

In 526 games with a closing spread a FG or less amd a total between 41.5 and 49.5, the home team has won with this exact score 4 times The implied team totals at 45.5 total and Bears 1.5 favorites is 23.5-22 Looking at the box scirws of those gamesz there's an overrepresentation in these close ones for a missed 2 pt conversion to battle back from a 8 or 1 pt score difference (TD puts you up 5 so you go for 2) that is not priced correctly here. Gonna also take GB 24-22 at 400-1

See other correct score pick note

Chimere Dike over 3.5 receptions (+130 at B365, +118 at DK) Dike gets a great matchup here as the Titans slot WR who should face plenty of Chiefs nickelback Chamarri Conner who allows a team worst 84.3% catch rate and has allowed at least 3 receptions in eight of 14 games. Dike doesn't see an appreciable drop in target rate against two-high safety looks, which the Chiefs use at the fourth-highest rate, but he does see a nice spike in targets against man coverage, of which the Chiefs also use at a top-10 rate, including a top-eight rate in the second half of the season, and the most in the NFL over the last two weeks without CB Trent McDuffie. Dike also gets targeted on a higher percentage of routes against the blitz, which Kansas City uses at a top-five rate. And when the Chiefs are laying back in two-high zone coverage, Dike will get plenty of short looks over the middle with a high completion rate, with Kansas City allowing the sixth-highest completion percentage and third lowest average depth of target. I'd much prefer the volume angle than the yards given the Chiefs two-high shell. If Dike is going to clear his 28.5 yard line, he'll likely need four receptions, so I'd rather take some nice plus money on it than lay -110 to clear the yardage.

Luck Rankings Market moving toward +2.5 so gonna grab this +3 now

Mike Evans anytime TD +175 at FanDuel This line is wild to me. Evans has scored at least one touchdown in 21 of 39 games (including playoffs) with Baker Mayfield as his QB. Evans came back from injury with a vengeance last week, posting a 6 catch, 132 yard performance on 12 targets. The Panthers have been a bit stingy against the WR position, but most of that is against the slot where they've allowed just 3 TDs all year to slot-aligned players, but 10 to players lined up out wide. Evans isn't going to drift into the slot all that much, especially with Chris Godwin healthy, so there shouldn't be a strong downgrade on the matchup here. I'd play this down to +135.

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Tyler Shough over 20.5 rush yds (-114 at FanDuel) I lost on Shough's under 22.5 last week, and this time I'm switching it up and going to the over well. If he can put up 28 yards on a Panthers defense that's stingy against QB scrambles, then we should love him here against the Jets that allow a top-three QB adjusted scramble rate. Shough is averaging 22.5 rushing yards per 100% of game snaps, which I'd only make higher in this particular matchup. The Jets have allowed 21 scramble yards per game, despite facing Mall Santas like Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa (x2). Outside of those five games, the Jets have allowed 30.6 scramble yards per game.

Luck Under

Luck Under

Nerd bets

Strong Luck Under...only half unit now, hoping total creeps up more to add second half unit later

Jahmyr Gibbs over 15.5 rush att (+105 at BetMGM, +104 at DK) In six games with Dan Campbell calling the plays for Detroit, Gibbs has had a median of 14 carries per game, clearing this line just once. However, in those six games the Lions have run more than double the amount of plays trailing in the second half than with the lead. As 7-point favorites, that heavily favors a better game script for Gibbs to rack up more rushing attempts. When leading, the Lions run 36% more than when they trail, which represents the largest discrepancy in the NFL for teams with at least 50 plays in both scenarios. The Steelers are also slightly worse ranked against the run than the pass, so ideally you'd want to attack them on the ground when possible. The other sneaky angle here is in those six games where Gibbs had a median of 14 carries, they came against teams that allow around league average total plays allowed. The Steelers rank No. 1 in the NFL in total plays faced, meaning there should be more overall play volume, which can only benefit Gibbs clearing this line. I really like taking this at any plus odds