Sean Koerner

Not only is this a brutal matchup against an elite Miami run defense, but it’s also a game where Ole Miss are 3.5 point dogs which means they could trail at a rate way higher than their season long rate (which would likely lower their rush volume overall. Projecting him closer to 17.5 rush att and closer to a median of 72.5 yards with around a 62% chance to stay under 83.5

Adams is expected to return from a hamstring injury that’s kept him out a few games now. I’m assuming they were playing it safe and that he’s closer to 100% with a low chance of a setback, but there’s still a chance he could be limited. My projection is assuming he steps right back into his full-time role at full health, so any sort of limitation due to the hamstring only helps favor the under here. This is also an odd matchup where you have arguably the best team facing one of the worst playoff teams (ever) as 10-point road favorites. I do think the Rams win this one with ease, and it’s a great matchup for them on the ground with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. It’s also a great matchup for Puka Nacua and the TE group, as the Panthers have struggled against WR1s and TEs this season. Davante tends to see a high % of his targets either downfield or in the end zone, which means anytime he does haul in a pass it has a massive impact on the game and often sets up the Rams to play with the lead and lean more run heavy. In a sense, every catch he makes can actually hurt his rest-of-game projection, which is a sneaky reason I like the under here. There’s also a chance we see some rain or wind in Carolina. Probably not enough to materially impact play, but it’s still a downgrade compared to playing indoors in LA and dings Adams slightly. We also saw Tyler Higbee return last week, which makes the TE group more likely to eat into Adams’ target share. All of this has me projecting him closer to 4.1 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 4.5. I have zero interest in fading his yardage or TD markets. I’m specifically fading him in this market. And again, this projection assumes he’s fully healthy and back to his normal role, so any limitations at all only add more hidden value to the under.