Bears vs Commanders Player Prop: Expert Backs This DJ Moore Market

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This is 22.5 everywhere else, but I'm still showing value there. I'd bet this up to 23.5.

Moore has really started clicking with Justin Fields over the Bears' last three games. He has seen his target rate go up in every game this season.

Importantly for this bet, he already has seven catches this season that have gone over this total.

Moore has an average depth of target of 13.7 yards, but he also has an expected yards after the catch of 4.5, according to NextGenStats. This is a lethal combination because he's getting looks downfield and has room to run.

The Commanders are also beatable in the deep-passing game. They've allowed the second-most yards per game on targets of 15 or more yards downfield. They've allowed eight receivers this season to clear this total in just four weeks.

Washington will have to respect Fields' rushing ability, which also can create space down the field for Moore.

Also of note, Scott Novak has relevance as the referee for this game. He tends to call delay of game and false start penalties at one of the highest rates in the NFL ever season. That sets us up for longer first downs, which could increase Fields' need to throw to Moore.

I'm projecting Moore's median closer to 24.5 yards for his longest reception. I have it as a 62% chance he clears 21.5 and a 60% chance he clears 22.5.