Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 13 college football projections

Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 13 college football projections article feature image

Sunday Morning Coffee

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee, a short look at college football projected lines before release in Las Vegas or offshore. This weekly column examines where the point spread should open or trend. Hangover, overlook and general box score notes from the week’s previous action will be captured to help any college football investor get action on a number.

If you plan to hit openers, take a look at the projected point spreads for Week 13:

Date Away Home CW Line
Nov 21 Kent St. Akron AKR -11
Nov 21 Miami Ohio Ball St. BALL +15.5
Nov 21 Bowling Green E. Michigan EMU -17
Nov 23 Ole Miss Mississippi St. MSST -15
Nov 24 Missouri Arkansas ARK +6.5
Nov 24 Ohio Buffalo BUFF +3.5
Nov 24 Northern Illinois C. Michigan CMCH +3
Nov 24 Western Kentucky FIU FIU +3
Nov 24 Navy Houston HOU -5
Nov 24 Iowa Nebraska NEB +0
Nov 24 Oregon St. Oregon ORE -19
Nov 24 Miami Pittsburgh PITT +13.5
Nov 24 New Mexico San Diego St. SDSU -16.5
Nov 24 Baylor TCU TCU -23
Nov 24 Texas Tech Texas TEX -9.5
Nov 24 Western Michigan Toledo TOL -11.5
Nov 24 Texas St. Troy TROY -27
Nov 24 South Florida UCF UCF -8
Nov 24 California UCLA UCLA -7
Nov 24 Virginia Tech Virginia UVA +8
Nov 25 USU Air Force AFA -4.5
Nov 25 Arizona Arizona St. ASU 0
Nov 25 Alabama Auburn AUB +4.5
Nov 25 Florida Atlantic Charlotte CHAR +22
Nov 25 UConn Cincinnati CIN -9.5
Nov 25 Florida St. Florida FLA +5
Nov 25 Boise St. Fresno St. FRES +8.5
Nov 25 Appalachian St. Georgia St. GST +7
Nov 25 Georgia Georgia Tech GT +11
Nov 25 BYU Hawaii HAW +5
Nov 25 Northwestern Illinois ILL +13.5
Nov 25 Iowa St. Kansas St. KSU 0
Nov 25 Louisville Kentucky UK +10.5
Nov 25 UTSA LA Tech LT -0.5
Nov 25 Texas A&M LSU LSU -11
Nov 25 Southern Miss Marshall MRSH -1
Nov 25 Penn St. Maryland MD +21
Nov 25 East Carolina Memphis MEM -25
Nov 25 Ohio St. Michigan MICH +8.5
Nov 25 Old Dominion Middle Tenn. MTSU -10.5
Nov 25 Wisconsin Minnesota MINN +13.5
Nov 25 UNLV Nevada NEV -2
Nov 25 Idaho New Mexico St. NMSU -5.5
Nov 25 North Carolina NC State NCST -14.5
Nov 25 West Virginia Oklahoma OKLA -15.5
Nov 25 Kansas Oklahoma St. OKST -36.5
Nov 25 Indiana Purdue PUR -1
Nov 25 North Texas Rice RICE +12
Nov 25 Michigan St. Rutgers RUTG +13.5
Nov 25 Wyoming San Jose St. SJSU +19.5
Nov 25 Tulane SMU SMU -5.5
Nov 25 Clemson South Carolina SC +15
Nov 25 Notre Dame Stanford STAN +0
Nov 25 Boston College Syracuse SYR +2.5
Nov 25 Vanderbilt Tennessee TENN -0.5
Nov 25 Temple Tulsa TLSA +5
Nov 25 UTEP UAB UAB -20.5
Nov 25 Georgia Southern ULL ULL -6.5
Nov 25 Arkansas St. ULM ULM +7.5
Nov 25 Colorado Utah UTAH -10
Nov 25 Duke Wake Forest WF -9.5
Nov 25 Washington St. Washington WASH -10
Legend: Coming off bye / Overlook/Hangover watch / Back to Back road travel / Neutral site


  • Excluding teams in the Sun Belt Conference, this will be the final game of the regular season. Overlook applies in some spots for teams that have clinched a division.  These teams may pack it in for Week 13 in preparation for a conference championship game. These games include ACC Coastal winner Miami at Pittsburgh, Conference USA East winner Florida Atlantic at Charlotte, East Carolina at AAC West winner Memphis, Big Ten West winner Wisconsin at Minnesota, and Conference USA West winner North Texas at Rice.


  • There are a few teams still competing for a chance at a bowl game while taking on teams that have been eliminated from the postseason. This includes UNLV at Nevada, Temple at Tulsa, New Mexico State hosting Idaho, and ULL hosting Georgia Southern.


  • The Iron Bowl will be the marquee game of the week. The same advanced stats that led us to fade Alabama in Week 11 apply here with Auburn. The Tide rank 96th in rush defense Power Success Rate, which measures conversions on third/fourth and short situations. War Eagle’s offense ranks 12th in rush Power Success Rate, and should convert against the Tide front seven. Another area of concern is the adjusted sack rate. Auburn should be in the backfield all day, ranking eighth in the country, while Alabama’s offensive line ranks 105th.


  • Keep your eye on the Apple Cup between Washington State and Washington. While the Huskies are projected ton by double digits, a Wazzu upset sends the Cougs to the Pac-12 Championship Game. The kickoff has been set for 5 p.m. PST, the same time slot as Notre Dame at Stanford. If the Huskies win the Apple Cup, Stanford will head to the Pac-12 Championship Game. Second half bets will be monitored in favor of the Irish if the Huskies have a large lead on Wazzu.

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