PDC Home Tour Darts Betting Odds, Preview and Picks for Day 12 (Tuesday, April 28)
Alex Davidson/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Hopp
If you’ve been following along with our PDC Home Tour Darts coverage, you know what our basic strategy is for the early part of this first-of-its-kind event. Given the unfamiliar environment and format for this tournament– the players are at home, play is sometimes interrupted by phone calls and the matches are short — it seems unwise to back big favorites.
Night 11 of the PDC Home Tour was a real sweat. Simon Whitlock, the even-money group favorite, had plenty of chances to go 3-0 but instead clocked in a 1-2 performance, providing a great night for the dogs. In the end there were a couple of big comebacks, two 5-4 finishes and a 3-1 underdog cashed as the group winner in the second-to-last leg of the day.
Everybody is searching for a return to normalcy, and while there’s nothing normal about watching two lads play Skype Darts, there’s comfort to be found in a good sweat. There have been some charming glitches during The Home Tour but so far it’s been a really nice time and is still providing the roller coaster of emotions that makes betting on the darts so great.
Tournament official/play-by-play commentator Dan Dawson put it best when his post-match interview with Alan Tabern went silently awry on Tuesday.
“Darts speaks louder than any words.”
The PDC Home Tour has been nothing short of heroic and I’m grateful that it continues on Tuesday.
PDC Home Tour Night 12 Betting Odds and Picks
Tuesday, April 28 at 2:30 p.m. ET
- No. 23 Max Hopp (+175)
- No. 30 Keegan Brown (+225)
- No. 78 Mike de Decker (+325)
- No. 75 Conan Whitehead (+350)
- Max Hopp (-162) v Mike De Decker (+126)
- Keegan Brown (-157) v Conan Whitehead (+122)
- Mike De Decker (-129) v Conan Whitehead (+101)
- Max Hopp (-143) v Keegan Brown (+112)
- Keegan Brown (-148) v Mike De Decker (+115)
- Conan Whitehead (+146) v Max Hopp (-189)
Come take a walk down Narrative Street with me.
Even though this group is headlined by up-and-coming favorite Max Hopp, Keegan “The Needle” Brown is the story. The 27-year-old Isle of Wight native works as a medical lab assistant in his native island’s only hospital and has been working the night shift in the blood sciences department during the pandemic.
“For now my skills are required in the laboratory, not on the dartboard, so my focus is there,” Brown told BBC Sport a few days back.
Hopp and Brown check in as the two Group 12 favorites but there’s very little separating all four of Tuesday’s competitors in what figures to be the most wide-open group we’ve seen to date. The absence of a clear favorite has kept everybody pretty much bunched together.
The odds imply that Hopp wins this group 36.4% of the time with Brown close behind him at 30.8%. The two underdogs, Mike de Decker and Conan Whitehead aren’t that far off either at 23.5% and 22.2%, respectively (yes, I know the hold is high but this isn’t the time or place to complain about that).
In terms of form it is actually Hopp who comes into the Home Tour with the worst average this season at 88.49. The 23-year-old German was battling illness in early March, too, so I’m counting on some ring rust for The Maximiser. The other three players come into Tuesday with similar averages, though Brown leads the way, just barely over de Decker, at 93.81.
My strategy for the Home Tour is to try and take advantage of the variance by beating the group favorites (who are a combined 21-12, -13.12 units in match play so far) but without any bonafide chalk to pick on we’ll adjust and take a waltz down Narrative Street.
Ignoring the noise and parsing through media-hype is a big part of betting, but just this once I’m going to buy the story and take a ride with Brown. I’m still not going to lay any juice — I’ll pass on playing The Needle in the two matches where he’s odds-on — but will instead back him to win Group 12 and beat Hopp as a slight underdog.
PDC Home Tour Night 12 Betting Picks
- Keegan Brown to win Group 12 (+225)
- Keegan Brown (+112) over Max Hopp
- Conan Whitehead (+146) over Max Hopp
PDC Home Tour Betting Record: 15-24, +4.1 units
PDC Home Tour Odds and Schedule
PDC Home Tour Group Winners
- Group 1: Jamie Lewis (+600)
- Group 2: Luke Woodhouse (+600)
- Group 3: Dave Chisnall (-134)
- Group 4: Geert Nentjes (+250)
- Group 5: Nick Kenny (+450)
- Group 6: Ryan Searle (+180)
- Group 7: Jelle Klaasen (+200)
- Group 8: Jonny Clayton (+130)
- Group 9: Martijn Kleermaker (+350)
- Group 10: Nathan Aspinall (-177)
- Group 11: Mike van Duivenbode (+300)
PDC Home Tour Darts Tournament Rules and Format
- If you’re unfamiliar with the rules of darts, click here.
- The tournament will feature 32 groups of four players who will play a round robin to determine a group winner.
- One group plays per day, for 32 days in a row. Yes, 32 days in a row.
- All group-stage matches are best-of-9 legs and two points will be awarded for a win. If there is a tie at the top of standings, the first tiebreaker will be leg difference.
- After the 32-day group stage, the winners will advance to the second phase of the competition. I’m assuming that means a single-elimination, bracket-style tournament. But, the PDC website didn’t go any further than that.
- The action will begin at 2:30 p.m. ET (7:30 p.m. local time) each night and stream on PDC.tv, free of charge.
- The first eight groups have been announced, along with the order of play, though the PDC has yet to confirm the remaining competitors.