BlackJack’s Golden Globes Betting Odds, Preview: Expect ‘A Star Is Born’ to Clean Up
Green Book Twitter. Pictured: Viggo Mortensen, Mahershala Ali
This is truly a great time of year for people like us.
The NFL Playoffs are here, the College Football National Championship is right around the corner and the NBA and NHL are in full swing. There are multiple ways to make money each and every day, brother. And yet…we are not satisfied.
We are always on the hunt to find more ways to find an edge. And what better way to start 2019 than by making money betting on the Golden Globes?
The Globes take place on Jan. 6 (8 p.m. ET, NBC) at the Beverly Hilton and I want you to be prepared to make some money, so let’s get to it, baby.
2019 Golden Globes Odds
Best Motion Picture Drama
- A Star Is Born -450 ($450 wins $100)
- If Beale Street Could Talk +450 ($100 wins $450)
- BlacKkKlansman +1100
- Black Panther +1100
- Bohemian Rhapsody +1600
The Golden Globes are unlike the Oscars in that they separate their major film awards by category. This year, in particular, certain films will benefit in a major way from this distinction.
Everyone who has listened to The Favorites Podcast knows how much I loved A Star Is Born. It is a captivating film with two fantastic leads, great supporting work and a story that is the definition of an emotional roller coaster.
Needless to say I think A Star Is Born is the runaway winner here and I will lay the odds.
If Beale Street Could Talk is a powerful story with great directing, but I don’t think it checks as many boxes as A Star Is Born.
BlacKkKlansman was a terrific and timely movie and the Spike Lee Joint had its moments, but it isn’t in the same class as the two favorites.
Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody were both enjoyable but neither of them come close to touching the emotional depths that A Star is Born or If Beale Street Could Talk.
The Bet: A Star Is Born -450
Best Motion Picture Musical Or Comedy
- Green Book +100
- The Favourite +150
- Vice +270
- Mary Poppins Returns +1400
- Crazy Rich Asians +2000
This is a tough one for me. Green Book was an incredible movie that was dominated by its two leads, Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali. The two men tell a beautiful story about the human spirit and the two play off one another so well that it makes the movie quite memorable.
Vice tells the story of one of the most powerful men in American history, Dick Cheney. Christian Bale steals the show as the former Vice President, but, and maybe I’m wrong here, I have a hard time seeing major awards honoring a movie about Dick Cheney.
Mary Poppins Returns and Crazy Rich Asians might be fun, but they aren’t going to win any major awards. The Favourite on the other hand is a movie with terrific female leads that puts an interesting spin on a time period that doesn’t always lend itself to such films.
The Bet: The Favourite +100
Best Actor In A Motion Picture Drama
- Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) -300
- Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) +220
- Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) +1400
- John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) +1800
- Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased) +1800
Rami Malek was Freddie Mercury. It was incredible to watch him transform into the legendary front man of Queen. The movie itself though, was a surface-depth look at Queen and Mercury. It was somewhat disappointing and I can’t help but think that carries some weight into this award.
Lucas Hedges delivered a performance that was memorable in Boy Erased. While I was slightly disappointed in the film overall, I thought Hedges was outstanding. At 18-1 Hedges is a definite value play that I wouldn’t hate.
Still, Bradley Cooper is the man to beat here. His work as Jackson Maine is haunting, charming, charismatic, and deeply sad. Not to mention that he transformed himself into a more than adequate singer for this role. It’s hard to see anyone beating him.
The Bet: Bradley Cooper -300
Best Actor In A Motion Picture Musical Or Comedy
- Christian Bale (Vice) -170
- Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) +150
- Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun) +650
- John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie) +1600
- Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) +1600
This is a two-man race in my mind. Bale and Mortensen are the only real contenders in this category, and if someone else wins, it’s robbery.
Mortensen does an incredible job in Green Book and in most years would be a runaway winner. We have, however, seen in years past that awards shows love when an actor shows the commitment to transform themselves physically for a role.
Christian Bale absolutely did that in his portrayal of Dick Cheney in Vice. This is also a nice way for the Globes to recognize the film without giving it the Best Picture nod.
The Bet: Christian Bale -170
Best Actress In A Motion Picture Drama
- Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) -250
- Glenn Close (The Wife) +250
- Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) +1100
- Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) +1200
- Rosamund Pike (A Private War) +1400
This is where the category distinction really comes into play. Nobody except Lady Gaga is winning this award. That is simply because of how the categories are broken down.
She manages to avoid the toughest of the competition. Now, that is not to say she doesn’t deserve it, because she does. Her performance as Ally Maine was unbelievably deep for someone who has not been acting for all that long. She should and will win this award.
The Bet: Lady Gaga -250
Best Actress In A Motion Picture Musical Or Comedy
- Olivia Colman (The Favorite) -180
- Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) +130
- Charlize Theron (Tully) +1200
- Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians) +1200
- Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade) +1400
This is a two-woman contest to me. Olivia Colman was outstanding in The Favourite, but, yet, I have a sneaking feeling that Emily Blunt may take home this hardware.
Mary Poppins Returns may not be your typical award film, but Blunt did a terrific job of reprising a classic role and somehow stepping out of the large shadow cast by Julie Andrews. Roll with Blunt to pull the upset.
The Bet: Emily Blunt +130
- Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) -250
- Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) +250
- Adam McKay (Vice) +1000
- Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) +1400
- Peter Farrelly (Green Book) +1600
This is truly the toughest category to pick from. All five directors were absolutely masterful in their works. I think we can rule out Lee and McKay. Despite not having the longest odds, I think those two are least likely to win.
Farrelly did a great job in creating essentially a two-man story that feels so much bigger. Cooper, in his directorial debut, creates a film that made me laugh, cry, empathize and think. Cuaron has stepped back into the arena for the first time since 2013’s Gravity to direct a pseudo-autobiography set in middle-class Mexico City in the 1970’s.
Any of the three would be worthy choices, and Farrelly might be worth a look at those long odds. Having said that, I think the most likely winner is Cuaron. It is impossible to watch Roma and not have visceral reactions to the way the content is displayed. That is a direct tribute to Cuaron and his work.
The Bet: Alfonso Cuaron -250
Best Supporting Actor In Any Motion Picture
- Mahershala Ali (Green Book) -150
- Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) +180
- Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) +150
- Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) +2000
- Sam Rockwell (Vice) +1800
I have zero issue if Mahershala Ali wins this award. The issue I have is that I wouldn’t call his role a supporting one. I understand the way the awards are structured necessitates it being categorized that way, but I just didn’t view it that way.
If you want something a little more off the chalk, take a look at Chalamet in Beautiful Boy. He did a wonderful job playing off Steve Carell and portraying the father-son relationship in the face of addiction.
The Bet: Timothee Chalamet +150
Best Supporting Actress In Any Motion Picture
- Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) -250
- Amy Adams (Vice) +120
- Emma Stone (The Favorite) +1000
- Claire Foy (First Man) +1200
- Rachel Weisz (The Favorite) +2000
I was surprised to see the odds for this award. I did not think we would find Weisz and Stone at such big numbers. Honestly, my gut says I think Rachel Weisz was the best of the bunch. At 20-1, I’m going to put my money there.
I may hedge a little with Emma Stone as well, as I thought she was also excellent in The Favourite. This is a category where you may be able to find some serious value. Don’t be afraid to lay it here.
The Bet: Rachel Weisz +2000