Who is favored to win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 Oscars? Current odds list Amy Madigan (Weapons) as the betting favorite to win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress at 47%.
The Academy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. It will get started at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Here's everything you need to know about the Best Supporting Actress race at the 2026 Academy Awards.
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Best Supporting Actress Odds
Amy Madigan (Weapons) is the betting favorite to win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 Oscars at 47%.
Close behind on the odds board is Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) at 27%. She's followed by Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), who is at 19%.
The long-shot nominees for Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 Oscars are a duo from the same film, as Sentimental Value stars Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning check in at 5% and 1%, respectively.
Best Supporting Actress Predictions
Chris Raybon: This is a category where Gold Derby has been extremely strong, as 13 of the last 14 top choices by their experts and editors have won this award. The one exception was when Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything Everywhere All At Once a few years ago.
To be fair, Amy Madigan’s Gold Derby support is on the lower end, which was also the case a few years ago with Curtis.
But still, we’re looking at a situation where Gold Derby nails this winner at a better than 90% clip, and we can get the favorite, Madigan, at plus money. So I think she’s the best bet.
Generally, when I’m looking at underdogs, it’s in a spot where the favorite is in the -200 to -400 range. So now, because of all the uncertainty around this category, the fact that I can get the favorite at plus money is a boon.
Bet: Amy Madigan (Anything Plus Money)
Collin Whitchurch: This is the most fascinating major race of the night.
Over the last two-plus months, we’ve seen three of the five nominees for Best Supporting Actress emerge as the favorite or close to it.
The early frontrunner was Teyana Taylor and she’s still very much in the ballgame, tracking second on the odds board entering show week.
Amy Madigan’s surprising win at the Critics Choice Awards in early January proved she was a real player in this category, too. Then, the BAFTA went to Wunmi Mosaku, leading to a scenario where none of the nominees could be considered a significant favorite.
Madigan’s win at the Actor Awards ultimately put her out front and that’s where things stand presently, but it’s a tepid lead at around -110.
Indeed, just over 50% of Gold Derby’s experts and editors are picking Madigan. But what’s surprising to me is that Taylor and Mosaku are so close, at 24% and 22%, respectively.
I personally think Mosaku is being overrated here. She grew up in England (she was born in Nigeria and her family emigrated when she was a year old), and the BAFTAs are notorious for preferring their own, as we also saw in the Best Actor race. That the BAFTAs were the only show she won makes her win much less meaningful than we’re seeing in the odds board.
The Oscar for Best Supporting Actress has gone to the SAG winner 20 of 25 times since 2000. They’ve matched in six straight year and have only disagreed once since 2008 (2018 Regina King over Emily Blunt).
I am sitting on both Madigan and Taylor positions and will be riding them out until showtime, but I think the most value is on this year’s SAG winner, Madigan, at anything plus money.
Best Bet: Amy Madigan (+100 or better)
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2026 Oscars FAQ
When are the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars (98th Academy Awards) are scheduled for this Sunday, March 15, 2025.
Where are the 2026 Oscars held?
The 2026 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Where to watch the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Who is hosting the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Who is nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
The films nominated for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars are One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and Train Dreams.
Who is favored to win at the 2026 Oscars?
One Battle After Another is the favorite for Best Picture, Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is the favorite for Best Director, Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) is favored to win Best Actor, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is favored to win Best Actress, Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) is favored to win Best Supporting Actor, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) is favored to win Best Supporting Actress.
Who won at the 2025 Oscars?
Sean Baker's film "Anora" was the big winner at the 2025 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most overall wins (5). It also won Best Director (Baker), Best Actress (Mikey Madison), Best Original Screenplay, and Best Film Editing. Adrien Brody won Best Actor for his role in "The Brutalist," Kieran Culkin won Best Supporting Actor for his role in "A Real Pain," and Zoe Saldana won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "Emilia Perez."
More 2026 Oscars Coverage
- Chris Raybon's 2025 Academy Awards Betting Card
- Collin Whitchurch's 2025 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions
- Best Picture Odds, Predictions
- Best Director Odds, Predictions
- Best Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Adapted Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Casting Odds, Predictions
- Best Costume Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling Odds, Predictions
- Best Production Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Song Odds, Predictions
- Best Visual Effects Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Cinematography Odds, Predictions
- Best International Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Film Editing Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Score Odds, Predictions
- Best Sound Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Live Action Short Odds, Predictions
