2027 Oscar Predictions, Kalshi Odds: “You Can See Everything” Tops Box Office, Chases Odyssey

You Can See Everything topped the box office over Halloween weekend: its first time at No. 1, three weekends into its run, and Oscar prediction markets are taking notice, though not as fast as ticket buyers are. A24’s documentary about Elizabeth Holmes is still chasing Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey for Best Picture, even as its box office total keeps growing and its awards campaign keeps expanding.

Here’s where the two stand on prediction markets right now, and what it would mean for this documentary to make Oscar history.

2027 Oscars Odds at Kalshi

Right now, Kalshi has The Odyssey as a clear Best Picture favorite, with You Can See Everything and the Netflix release “The Black Ball” (“La Bola Negra”) trailing well behind. Polymarket’s board tells a similar story, with “Dune: Part Three” rounding out the top four.

The Odyssey arrived as a box office and critical hit at once: reviews were strong, audiences responded just as well, and by August it had become the highest-grossing R-rated movie ever made. Add a real international run on top of that, and the film has built the kind of all-around case that tends to carry a Best Picture campaign: proven with mass audiences worldwide.

You Can See Everything is working from a different kind of momentum. Its IMDb and Letterboxd scores are about as strong as any 2026 release has posted, but the film has yet to open outside North America. Whether that acclaim holds up once it reaches international audiences, and whether a nomination alone would be enough to call it historic, even without a win, are the two questions still hanging over its campaign.

Before we continue with our break down of the current odds and their future implications, make sure to use our Kalshi promo code and download the Action Network app to get the best political trading insights. 

You Can See Everything tops the box office in its third weekend

Both studios claimed No. 1 honors over the weekend, each projecting roughly $10.5 million. When Monday’s final numbers came in, You Can See Everything had the edge: $11.4 million, against Clayface’s $11 million in its second weekend, Variety reported. That puts the documentary’s domestic total at $64.7 million against its reported $7 million budget: a wide margin for a film shot in secret over three years.

It’s “a rare achievement for any film,” Rentrak’s head of marketplace trends Paul Dergarabedian told Variety, especially for a documentary running past the three-hour mark. With strong word of mouth driving repeat viewings, the film is on track to finish its run as one of the biggest documentaries in decades.

Could a documentary earn a Best Picture nomination for the first time?

No documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture in the Academy’s 98-year history, and that’s the real story behind all the market activity. Kalshi’s Best Documentary Feature market still makes You Can See Everything a heavy favorite at 67%, ahead of NAZA at 22%.

Vulture’s Nate Jones has made the case that the documentary branch votes on its own terms, with little interest in simply rubber-stamping whatever the rest of the industry has already celebrated. That’s part of why some awards writers think a snub in that category could actually help the film’s Best Picture case.

Best Director and Supporting Actress: how the odds have moved

Nolan remains the clear Best Director favorite on both platforms, trading at 57% on Kalshi and 60% on Polymarket. Where the two diverge is how they price the documentary’s directing team: Kalshi lists Nathan Fielder individually in second place at 18%, just ahead of Denis Villeneuve’s 16%, while Polymarket has Villeneuve second at 15% and co-director Lance Oppenheim third at 11.4%, narrowly ahead of La Bola Negra directors Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi.

A24’s splashiest awards push, though, is for Best Supporting Actress. Polymarket’s nomination market, where several contenders can price well above 50% at once, since five nominees eventually make the cut, has Anne Hathaway as the clear frontrunner at 89%, with Amanda Seyfried further down the board at 60% for her widely covered appearance in the film.

What A24 is campaigning for beyond Best Documentary

A24 is campaigning You Can See Everything in 9 categories beyond Best Documentary Feature: Best Picture, Best Director for Fielder and Oppenheim, Best Supporting Actress for Seyfried, and below-the-line categories like production design, cinematography, costume design, film editing, sound and original score. It’s an unusually broad campaign for a documentary: one that treats the film less like a nonfiction entry and more like any other Best Picture contender.

Key dates: nominations arrive in late January

That ceremony date is also when Kalshi’s Best Picture, Best Director and Best Documentary Feature contracts are scheduled to resolve. Polymarket lists a later backstop date on some of its equivalent markets, but all of them will settle as soon as the Academy announces its winners.

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