Best Director Predictions & Betting Odds for the 2020 Oscars
Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images. Pictured: Quentin Tarantino
- Will anybody upset Sam Mendes for Best Director? Our experts have their predictions.
Best Director Prediction for 2020 Oscars
Chris Raybon: Sam Mendes, 1917 (-500 up to -885)
Mendes bagged top honors at Directors Guild of America, which has failed to align with Best Director at the Oscars just seven times since 1950 — an 89.6% success rate.
If there were only one viable alternative, perhaps Mendes would be at risk. But what will likely happen is that support for Tarantino to get his first directing win will get canceled out by support for Joon-ho to earn the nod, and neither will be enough to buck the DGA trend.
Katie Richcreek: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (+2000)
I’ve got a contrarian pick here.
There are a couple factors that the Academy could weigh here:
- Despite being nominated twice before (Pulp Fiction and Inglourious Basterds), Tarantino has never won Best Director.
- Once Upon A Time is his ninth of 10 promised feature films. He continues to claim his next will be his last, and there’s the non-zero chance it’s a Star Trek film.
When I apply my theory of Once Upon A Time, 1917 and Parasite splitting Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay, Tarantino seems like the obvious pick for Director. Plus Once Upon a Time is now the third-favorite for Best Picture, so knowing the negative correlation between the winner of Best Pic and the winner of Best Director in recent years — five of the past seven winners have not been the same — I’m all in on Tarantino.
I initially bet him at +800, but with all the buzz around Mendes for 1917 and Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite, take the better number.
Best Director Betting Odds for 2020 Oscars
- Sam Mendes (1917) -455
- Nong Joon Ho (Parasite) +275
- Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon A Time in Hollywood) +2000
- Martin Scorsese (The Irishman) +5000
- Todd Phillips (Joker) +5000