Big Brother Season 28 is in full swing, and prediction markets are already speculating which houseguest will walk away with the grand prize.
Using the latest data from Kalshi as of July 16th, 2026, here is the updated outlook for the game's top players. While the finale is still weeks away, public perception and prediction pricing have shifted dramatically following recent veto competitions and alliance drama. Even the as of yet unaired veto episode is impacting the results due to the viewers who watch live.
Ashley Trail has become an extreme long shot to win, but stands strong chances of going home. Meanwhile, Barrett Pfeiffer and Dee Valladares stand at the market's current favorites.
What The Market Is Saying
- Dee Valladares and Barrett Pfeiffer have skyrocketed to the top tier, holding 15% and 11% probabilities respectively, making them the frontrunners to win Big Brother.
- Drew Campbell stands as the third-highest player on the board at 9%.
- Once sitting comfortably, Rick Devens' odds have cooled down slightly to 6%. The other returnee Angela Murry also holds 6% odds of winning.
- On the elimination front, Yash Patel was the favorite to leave this week 24 hours ago. However, tides have shifted and now Ashley Trail is at 67% chance of being the first elimination, with Yash only at 41% and Taylor Brown having fallen way down to 5%.
Who Will Be Eliminated From Big Brother This Week?
Ashley Trail: Leads the entire house with a 67% implied probability of elimination. 24 hours ok she looked fairly safe with Yash having strongest boot odds, but the market (and the Big Brother house) have shifted.
Yash Patel & Taylor Brown: Hold the next highest risks at 41% and 5%, respectively.
Who Will Win Big Brother Season 28?
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Most Likely Big Brother Winning Houseguests
Dee Valladares, 15% The market sees Dee as the most likely winner. The former Survivor winner's HOH win and handling of it make traders think she could go far.
Barrett Pfeiffer, 10% Right on Dee's heels, traders currently give Barrett the 2nd highest chance of winning this whole thing, thanks to a strong social game and careful positioning within major alliances.
Drew Campbell, 8% Drew remains a strong possibility in the market's eyes
Other Players on the Board
The tie for 4th most likely Big Brother winner is strong. 5 houseguests, at the moment of writing this, currently stand at 6%. The takeaway? It's early days and confidence is split between many contenders.
Angela Murray: 6.00%
- Rick Devins: 6.00%
Chuk Anyanwu: 6.00%
Mallory Aurichio: 6.00%
Rome Seymour: 6.00%
Time Will Tell
Many of these predictions look incredibly strong, but as any Big Brother fan knows, a single Power of Veto win, a backdoor plan, or hidden power can completely flip the house upside down. With producers known for dropping twists at a moment's notice, expect substantial movement in these probabilities before the final houseguests are locked in.
The Kalshi market of who will win Big Brother and other Big Brother trading markets is governed by strict, verifiable rules, as is standard practice when it comes to the Best Prediction Markets.
