Big Brother Season 28 is in full swing, and prediction markets are already speculating which houseguest will walk away with the grand prize.
Using the latest data from Kalshi as of August 5th 2026, here is the updated outlook for the game's top players. While the finale is still weeks away, public perception and prediction pricing have shifted dramatically following recent veto competitions and alliance drama. Even the as of yet unaired veto episode is impacting the results due to the viewers who watch live feeds.
Dee Valladares’ odds of winning continue to rise, traders increasingly believe the Survivor champion could win Big Brother as well. Right behind her is fellow Survivor alum Rick Devens who has the 2nd highest odds of winning.
What The Market Is Saying
Dee Valladares Solidifies Frontrunner Status: Dee has strengthened her position at the top, climbing to a market-leading 26% win probability. Traders view her strategic positioning and social play as the strongest in the house.
Rick Devens Remains Primary Threat: Rick holds firm as Dee’s closest rival, sitting in second place with 18% win odds.
Kamu Kirk Surges into Top Tier: Kamu has made a major leap, surging to 11% to claim third place on the board and joining Dee and Rick as the only houseguests in double digits.
Eviction Shift: The target on former top threats has completely cleared, with eviction danger now heavily concentrated on Haley Thogmartin and Chuk Anyanwu.
Who Will Be Eliminated From Big Brother This Week?
The elimination market has taken a dramatic turn following real-time live feed movements. Haley Thogmartin and Chuk Anyanwu have emerged as the primary eviction targets for the week.
The Top Eviction Threats
Haley Thogmartin (57% Risk): Haley’s boot odds have surged to 57%, making her the clear favorite for elimination as the house majority aligns against her.
Chuk Anyanwu (43% Risk): Chuk is in critical danger right behind Haley at 43%, forming a two-person race for who walks out the door this week.
Barrett Pfeiffer (3% Risk): Barrett carries a slight residual danger share of 3%, though market consensus heavily indicates either Haley or Chuk will be evicted.
Who Will Win Big Brother Season 28?
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Most Likely Big Brother Winning Houseguests
Dee Valladares (26%): The market sees Dee as the undisputed favorite to take home the grand prize. Her commanding play and strong alliance structure keep her firmly in control.
Rick Devens (18%): Rick has solidified himself as Dee’s primary competitor for win equity, benefiting from key game shifts and threat-level management.
Kamu Kirk (11%): Kamu has surged into the top tier, breaking past 10% win probability as his strategic standing improves.
Yash Patel (7.13%): Yash maintains steady single-digit momentum as he continues to navigate off the eviction radar.
Barrett Pfeiffer & Drew Campbell (7.00% each): Tied for fifth, Barrett holds steady at 7.00%, while Drew Campbell’s win equity has rebounded back up to 7.00% as his immediate eviction risk subsides.
Mallory Aurichio (6.00%) & Taylor Brown (5.98%): Mallory and Taylor round out the list of active contenders in dark-horse territory.
Time Will Tell
Many of these predictions look incredibly strong, but as any Big Brother fan knows, a single Power of Veto win, a backdoor plan, or hidden power can completely flip the house upside down. With producers known for dropping twists at a moment's notice, expect substantial movement in these probabilities before the final houseguests are locked in.
The Kalshi market of who will win Big Brother and other Big Brother trading markets is governed by strict, verifiable rules, as is standard practice when it comes to the Best Prediction Markets.
