The 97th Academy Awards are around the corner, and on March 15 we will find out who will take home the honor of Best Actor.
Prediction market Polymarket has odds posted for the most likely award winners, with a few Hollywood megastars running the table.
You can trade on the Golden Globes and entertainment events, as well as thousands of other markets at Polymarket, which is available in all 50 states.
Oscars Best Actor Odds, Predictions
Odds are via Kalshi and update every hour.
Timothée Chalamet Odds
A late addition to the fold, Chalamet is expected to receive consideration for his performance in Marty Supreme, a Josh Safdie-directed biopic that was released in theaters on Christmas Day. In the film, Chalamet played the role of Marty Mauser, a table tennis player from Manhattan's Lower East Side.
This would be Chalamet's third Best Actor nomination; quite the feat for a young actor who just turned 30 in December. His prior Best Actor nominations include one for Call Me By Your Name in 2016, and most recently one for his role as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown just last year.
Leonardo DiCaprio Odds
DiCaprio is no stranger to the Academy Awards, having been nominated for seven during an illustrious career that spans more than 30 years. In 2026, he's nominated for his work in Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another, where he starred alongside Sean Penn and Chase Infiniti as a retired militant named Bob Ferguson, who was suddenly sprung back into action after an old foe started chasing his family down.
Aside from this year, DiCaprio has been nominated for five Best Actor awards, losing his first three before finally winning in 2016 for his work in The Revenant. He'll look to put a second trophy on his mantle this March.
Wagner Moura Odds
Perhaps best known by American audiences for his starring role in the Netflix series Narcos, or his performance in the 2024 feature film Civil War, Moura has received recognition this year for The Secret Agent, a Brazilian film directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho. Moura, a native of Brazil, got his acting start in his home country before starring in American productions in the 2010s.
In The Secret Agent, Moura plays the role of Armando, an ex-professor trying to hide from the Brazilian military regime. The film took home the most awards at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, including a Best Actor award netted by Moura. He'll try to nab another one at the Oscars.
