Video game finance expert on GTA VI, Half-Life 3, and Steam’s future
Professor Rob Wilson believes Valve could release Half-Life 3 in 2026 to help drive adoption of new Steam hardware and generate billions through hardware uptake and long-term ecosystem spending.
Speaking to Action Network at the start of a pivotal year for gaming, with Grand Theft Auto VI anticipated for November, Wilson also shared predictions for 2026 and beyond.
Fans of the Elder Scrolls series may have to wait until 2027, with the follow-up to Skyrim more likely to launch after GTA VI has come and gone.
Half-Life 3 and Steam hardware
Q: With the anticipated launch of the Steam Machine in March, is Half-Life 3 the perfect “killer app” to drive pick-up of the system ahead of consoles, and how much would that be worth to Valve?
A:Half-Life 3 would be the ultimate killer app if Valve chose to pair it with new Steam hardware.
The upside is not just game sales, but hardware adoption and long-term ecosystem spending. Even a few million new users can translate into billions over time because Steam monetises repeatedly rather than once.
The strategic value is immense, but only if quality meets the franchise’s legendary expectations.
The optimal window is earlier in the year, well clear of GTA VI’s November release. GTA will dominate consumer attention and discretionary spend, so Valve’s best move is to own a quieter period and benefit from a longer monetisation runway.
Releasing before the holiday congestion maximises visibility, engagement and lifetime returns.
What would it take to buy Steam?
Q: How much would it take for another entity to buy Steam?
A: Steam is one of the most powerful platforms in gaming, generating billions annually through distribution and network effects.
Any acquisition conversation would start in the tens of billions and could realistically reach $40–70 billion depending on growth assumptions.
More importantly, regulatory and strategic barriers make a sale extremely unlikely regardless of price.
Elder Scrolls VI: revenue needs and release timing
Q: How much does Elder Scrolls VI need to earn Bethesda?
A:Elder Scrolls VI needs to generate billions in lifetime value across sales, subscriptions and brand halo effects.
While fans frame it as a last chance, Bethesda’s revenues remain strong due to scale and back catalogue strength.
A successful release would restore trust and power the franchise for another decade, while a weak one would raise acquisition costs and erode long-term brand equity.
Elder Scrolls VI should avoid any window dominated by GTA VI.
A spring or early summer 2027 release allows it to own the conversation, benefit from sustained community engagement and avoid holiday season noise.
Timing here directly affects reviews, streaming exposure and long-term sales velocity.
Should Bungie move on from Destiny 2?
Q: Should Bungie give up on Destiny 2 at this point?
A:Destiny 2 is past its peak but still has a monetisable live audience.
The smart financial play is not abandonment, but right-sizing investment and stabilising the product.
With disciplined development, it can remain a steady annuity rather than a growth engine. Walking away would destroy years of accumulated brand and community value.
The value of a Netflix-exclusive FIFA game
Q: What’s the value of the new FIFA-branded game being released as a Netflix exclusive?
A: The value lies in retention, not game sales.
FIFA as a Netflix exclusive turns football fandom into subscription stickiness, particularly around major tournaments.
The upside is reduced churn, increased engagement minutes and greater leverage with partners, rather than direct consumer spend.
It is a threat to attention on EA FC but not to EA FC’s core revenues.
EA FC generates around $2 billion annually, driven by deeply embedded live service spending habits.
A Netflix FIFA game can broaden casual reach but does not yet threaten the high-value competitive ecosystem that underpins EA’s financial dominance.
Can AI lower AAA costs — and prices?
Q: Can generative AI make AAA games cheaper and quicker to develop, passing on savings to consumers to move us away from a $100 price tag for blockbuster releases?
A: AI will reduce some production costs, but those savings are more likely to be reinvested into scale and fidelity than passed on to consumers.
What we will see is price discrimination: higher priced premium editions, rising headline prices for blockbuster games, and greater use of subscriptions to soften consumer resistance.
The ceiling will continue to rise, even if entry-level access becomes more flexible.
Related:
BetMGM Bonus Code | DraftKings Promo Code
