Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Wolves vs. Arsenal EPL Betting Preview (Feb. 10)

Wolves vs. Arsenal Odds

To close out the midweek Premier League slate, Wolverhampton hosts Arsenal on Thursday in a match of in-form teams pushing for European qualification for next season.

Wolves enter the contest unbeaten in their last five games on four wins and a draw, moving to eighth in the league table. Meanwhile, the Gunners are two places above the hosts, picking up four wins in their last six outings.

Depending on how the other results shake out before this fixture, Arsenal could jump into the top four with a victory. However, I think Wolves will be up for the fight as home underdogs.

Wolves Loan Traoré to Spanish Giant Barcelona

The big news from Wolves over the January transfer window was the departure of winger Adama Traoré, who joined Barcelona on loan for the remainder of the season.

While he only produced the one league goal this season, manager Bruno Lage did lose a player that was one of the best producers in expected goals (0.2) and expected assists (0.15) per match on his team, according to fbref.com.

With no additions coming in, Wolves will be depending on their stout defense even more for the remainder of the season, which ranks seventh in the EPL in non-penalty xG per 90 minutes (1.29), fourth in shots allowed per match (11.76) and fifth in big scoring chances surrendered (18) overall.

One top performer this season has been goalkeeper José Sá, whose post-shot xG minus goals allowed per match mark of +0.3 only trails Manchester United’s David de Gea for best in the English top flight.

Questions Surround Arsenal Entering Clash

Which Arsenal team will return after the international break: the one that won four of its last six games in the league or the club that was dumped out of cup competitions by Nottingham Forest and Liverpool?

Manager Mikel Arteta will be hoping to keep the hot EPL run going, with his Gunners posting a +7.3 xG difference in the last six league games. He’ll be leading his team without star striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who joined Traoré at Barcelona right after deadline day following his Arsenal release.

However, Arteta will welcome the return of the midfield duo of Thomas Partey and Granit Xhaka, which will be key for this trip to the Molineux Stadium.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Looking at the odds at BetMGM, Arsenal is expected to continue its winning run, entering the fixture as the +115 favorite on the moneyline to go along with a total of 2.5 goals.

However, I think the Gunners are a bit overrated for this match. That said, my best bet is to back Wolves on the Draw No Bet market at +145 odds. If your sportsbook offers an Asian Handicap number of +0.25 at anything around even money, I like that bet as an option as well.

One key factor for this play is how Arsenal has played in away games this season. In the 10 fixtures away from home this season, the Gunners have posted a -5 expected goals difference.

Meanwhile, Wolves have been a solid squad at home this campaign, losing just once (Liverpool) in the last seven at the Molineux. This run includes a draw against Chelsea and a win over West Ham United.

Arsenal has had issues this season breaking down teams that can sit back and defend, which is exactly what Wolves are going to do in this match.

I think this is a great number to back a home underdog to get a positive result.

Pick: Wolves — Draw No Bet (+145)