Fantasy Start/Sit Decisions: Fire Up Christian Watson, Aaron Jones; Bench Jared Goff, More
Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Jared Goff.
First place in the NFC North is on the line on Thursday Night Football when the Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field.
As usual, there are plenty of moving parts heading into Week 4 when it comes to the management of your fantasy team. The goal of this column is to assist you in making the best decisions possible despite information regarding the Sunday slate still incomplete.
The Lions offense picked up right where they left off in 2022, and there is reason for more optimism regarding their efficiency. Detroit ranks seventh in the NFL in yards per play and in the passing game — only the Dolphins average more yards per dropback.
This game won’t exactly be smooth sailing as the Packers defense represents a stiff test. Green Bay is 10th in total defensive DVOA, and it is more vulnerable against the run than the pass. The Lions have not been successful with the run in their first three games, ranking 24th in yards per carry (3.64) and 18th in percentage of runs that get stuffed (44.2%).
The Packers showed the ability to put up points quickly last week in their comeback win against the Saints. Green Bay's offense is ranked ninth, according to DVOA, but it could struggle to consistently move the ball against a Detroit defense that's allowing only 4.6 yards per play (sixth best). However, there has been optimism this week that both Aaron Jones and Christian Watson will return to the lineup on Thursday night.
For a primetime game between two top-10 offenses, there remains a high level of uncertainty in Lions vs. Packers with many of the fantasy players involved.
The only player managers must start under any circumstance is Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions’ alpha receiver has commanded a 27.2% target share and has accounted for 33.6% of the teams yards through the air.
Let’s run through every other skill player in consideration for your fantasy team this week.
Lions Week 4 Start / Sit
QB Jared Goff
Goff is currently QB11 on the season in four-point TD pass leagues, and he is scoring at a predictable back-end QB1 rate.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson continues to consistently find ways to scheme open the skill players on this offense. The Packers defense has not really been tested to open the season — the offenses they have faced rank 31st ,24th and 17th in DVOA.
My worry with Goff has to do with his performance in situations similar to the one he will be in Thursday night. Goff finished as a top-15 fantasy quarterback only once in a game that was played outdoors in 2022. Furthermore, against the Packers defense, he averaged under 11 fantasy points per game, outside of the top 18 at the position in both of his meetings with this defense a season ago.
While there are situations in which you may not have a choice in starting Goff, I am mainly recommending to keep him on the bench in a road matchup on a short week.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs
If you used a third-round pick on Gibbs, you are likely frustrated with his production. Now is not the time to look elsewhere.
Gibbs played a season-high 60% of the offensive snaps in Week 3, handling 18 of the 26 touches by Lions RBs. His role has increased each week thus far, and he is becoming more comfortable in the offense.
The rookie is one of only four running backs in the league with greater than 10% of his carries resulting in 15+ yards. He also ranks fourth in missed forced tackles per touch in the first three games. Against a defense that ranks 21st in yards per carry allowed, he must remain in your starting lineup.
Regardless of the status of David Montgomery, Gibbs should be locked into your starting lineup.
Sam LaPorta
LaPorta is the only tight end in NFL history to begin his career with three consecutive five-reception games. In a time when the tight end position is as weak as we have ever seen in fantasy football, an ascending player with a target share above 20% is almost assuredly your best option.
Unless you have LaPorta as a backup to Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson or George Kittle, he needs to be in your starting lineup. He is a top-five option at the position on a weekly basis moving forward.
Packers Week 4 Start/Sit
Jordan Love
Love is currently the No. 5 quarterback in fantasy football through three weeks, just ahead of Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. His 7:1 TD-INT ratio is even more impressive when you consider his two best weapons in the passing game, Christian Watson and Aaron Jones, have both missed the Packers’ previous two contests.
Only Justin Herbert and Love have scored greater than 20 points in all three of their games to open the year. At some point, we will have to start treating Love as a QB1 instead of the volatile QB2 we thought he might be during draft season.
Keep an eye on the injury report in regards to Jones and Watson. If they both suit up, I am expecting them to be healthy and ready to roll.
That would make Love a solid QB1 option. In fact, I would go out on a limb and start him over Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields and even Jackson, given his extremely difficult matchup at Cleveland.
Aaron Jones
If Jones is active, he should always be in your starting lineup.
A.J. Dillon has been less than efficient this season, with 51% of his carries being stuffed to go along with a 2.74 yards per carry average. This gives Jones a clear path to a large workload after only getting 13 opportunities in Week 1 (carries + targets). Jones accounted for 35% of the team’s receiving yards in that game, and he is the only explosive option they have out of the backfield.
Don’t be concerned with Jones' game-time decision status heading into Thursday. If the coaching staff believes he is ready, you should start him with confidence.
Christian Watson
Watson’s average depth of target in 2022 was 14.1 yards. There is room for improvement on that number with Jordan Love throwing him the ball.
Love is first in the league in average depth on passing attempts, and he's third in the rate at which his attempts travel 20+ air yards (16.8%).
Watson’s ceiling with Love is one we can't pass up. Possessing spike-week ability any time he is in the lineup, Watson should always be in your starting wide receiver slot.
Romeo Doubs/Jayden Reed
Both of these receivers have a 20% target share to begin the season. That is going to undoubtedly decrease with Watson and/or Jones back healthy.
Neither of these players rank in my top 36 wideouts for Week 4, thus only a flex play is in order if you are dealing with injuries.
I would plan to keep both of these players on the bench this week, but with Doubs tied for second in the league with five end-zone targets, he would be my preferred desperation flex start.
Luke Musgrave
Tight end is weak enough that I must address any player at the position who can garner eight targets in a game, like Musgrave did last week in the comeback against the Saints.
The performance may have been an outlier. The Packers are 25th in plays per game, but they had to run 68 plays on offense last week.
With Musgrave likely to fall even further down the pecking order, his .19 targets per route run coupled with no end-zone targets don’t give me the confidence to play him this week.
Sit Musgrave.
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