NFL Week 4 Fantasy Buy/Sell Trade Targets: Don’t Give Up on Joe Mixon
Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Mixon #28 of the Cincinnati Bengals
If you are 3-0, you’re ready to lay the foundation for a fantasy football playoff run.
If you are 0-3, you are in desperation mode to right the ship before it’s too late.
Either way? It’s time to consider making a move.
Here are my favorite buy-lows and sell-highs heading into the critical Week 4.
Fantasy Trade Targets
RB David Montgomery, Bears
One the most notable Week 3 injuries came from Chicago. Tarik Cohen tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season.
That leaves Montgomery with the chance to inherit an even bigger workload. His 16 touches per game average over the first three weeks will increase in Cohen’s absence.
From Weeks 9-16 — the stretch run and fantasy postseason — Chicago’s schedule is as running back friendly as possible:
- Week 9: at Tennessee (23rd most points allowed to running backs)
- Week 10: Minnesota (26th)
- Week 11: Bye
- Week 12: at Green Bay (30th)
- Week 13: Detroit (25th)
- Week 14: Houston (29th)
- Week 15: at Minnesota (6th)
- Week 16: at Jacksonville (20th)
Look to target Montgomery over the next two weeks as a consistent RB2 or Flex play.
RB, Joe Mixon, Bengals
Mixon is following the same fantasy path as his 2019 season. Through three games he is a miserable RB37 in PPR formats, averaging just 8.0 fantasy points per game with no touchdowns. All this despite ranking fifth among all running backs in rushing attempts.
However, Mixon remains one of the few bell cow running backs that is a weapon in both the running and passing game.
For an 0-3 Bengals team looking for their first win, Mixon faces the Jaguars porous defense at home in Week 4.
The Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most receptions to opposing running backs, providing a “get right” opportunity for Mixon.
From Weeks 12-14, Mixon will face the Giants, Miami, and Dallas. All of those teams rank in the bottom-third of the league in either rushing or receiving yards allowed to opposing backs.
WR, Jamison Crowder, Jets
Well, the Jets certainly project for negative game scripts moving forward.
And someone has to catch those passes, right?
New York has been outscored 94-37 through three games and has been decimated by injuries on offense.
Crowder will be the clear WR1 when he returns from a foot injury. That could be soon as Thursday at home against the Broncos.
In Week 1, Crowder’s eight receptions, 115 receiving yards, and one touchdown equated to the WR8 overall performance. He was also on the field for 98% of the snaps in that game.
See if you can tempt a desperate team to trade this PPR magnet at a discount price.
WR, D.J. Moore, Panthers
Follow the targets.
Moore ranks ninth among all wide receivers with 26 targets through three weeks. His 239 total receiving yards ranks a respectable 14th at the position. But his fantasy points per game? A disappointing 39th.
Yet there is still reason for optimism. The Panthers rank eighth in passing yards per game (273.3) and their poor defense insures a plethora of negative game scripts moving forward.
Before Carolina’s Week 13 bye week, the Panthers will face Atlanta twice, the Saints, Vikings, and Lions.
Even after a quiet Week 3 with just three targets, Moore is commanding a 25.4% target share for Carolina. Have confidence in this athletic wideout who finished as a low-end WR1 in 2019.
Fantasy Sell Candidates
WR, Tyler Boyd, Bengals
Boyd has a big Week 3 performance with 10 receptions on 13 targets and 125 receiving yards. But the presence of A.J. Green, development of rookie Tee Higgins, and the expected positive regression of Joe Mixon make him a classic sell-high candidate.
Higgins tallied two touchdowns on nine targets while veteran A.J. Green battled with Philadelphia cornerback Darius Slay. I struggle to see Boyd maintaining weekly production in an offense with so many weapons.
Cincinnati has upcoming games against Indianapolis, Washington, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Those are the top four teams in pass defense DVOA per FootballOutsiders.
Look to sell Boyd coming off his huge Week 3 performance.
RB Todd Gurley, Falcons
Thanks to a touchdown, Gurley makes this list for the second straight week. Gurley finished with 14 carries, 80 yards, and a touchdown. But for the third week in a row, he was non-existent in the passing game. Through three games, Gurley has only three receptions for a total of three receiving yards.
We also saw backup running back Brian Hill gain 80 total yards including an impressive 35-yard touchdown run. Hill already has five receptions and 41 receiving yards this season.
Sell the former Rams star to a team in need for a running back, before Hill assumes a larger portion of the Atlanta backfield touches.