2018 Gambling Olympics: Mash the Under in the Daily Fantasy MLB Contest
- Daily Fantasy Sports is one of the 12 events in the inaugural Gambling Olympics
- Each contestant will compete on DraftKings in two MLB slates, one on Monday and one on Tuesday
- In addition to being able to wager on the winner, you can also wager if the high score will be over or under 195.5 points
The 2018 Gambling Olympics is a two-day, 12-person contest taking place in Las Vegas on July 9-10. The buy-in is $2,500, and the winner gets $10,000.
Before, during and after the Gambling Olympics, we will provide extensive coverage via participant profiles, event breakdowns and live in-person analysis. Be sure to follow all the action in the Gambling Olympics section of the site.
- The 12 competitors will each set one MLB lineup on DraftKings on both Monday and Tuesday
- The over/under is 195.5. If any competitor goes over that mark on either day, the over cashes. If no one does, the under cashes.
Handicapping The Field
There are a lot of sharp DFS minds in the contest, but I’m not sure how many of them view baseball as one of their best sports. Jonathan Bales typically crushes during the early part of the MLB season but sees his results wane as the year progresses. Given that we’re officially in the second half of the season, he might be out of his comfort zone. Peter Jennings has won on the biggest stages in Daily Fantasy MLB in the past but seems more focused on the NFL and NBA now. Adam Levitan is way too busy researching the WNBA to have any time for America’s pastime.
Then there’s Brandon Adams. He’s one of the favorites in the DFS event at +400 and is coming off a few serious MLB scores over the past few weeks. He took home $100,000 by winning the DraftKings Walk-Off Home Run on June 25 and followed that up by taking home $40,000 courtesy of a first-place finish in the Thunderdome just one day later. Of all the competitors in the field, he seems the most likely to put up a big number in Vegas.
As good as Adams is, the over/under of 195.5 seems egregiously high. I went through the highest-stakes contests on DraftKings since June 1 using the FantasyLabs DFS Contest Dashboard and looked at the winning score from each of the 27 slates. The average score was just 154.9 points, which is more than 40 points lower than the over/under for the Gambling Olympics. Keep in mind that these contests feature the best MLB DFS players in the world, usually contain significantly more than 12 entries, and occasionally allow users to enter more than one entry. If the winning score in those contests is only 154.9, I would expect the average winning score from the Gambling Olympic field over the same time frame to be lower.
The winning score also eclipsed the 195.5-point barrier just once in those 27 contests, and the winning lineup stacked two teams that each scored at least 10 runs and combined for 13 extra-base hits. That kind of offensive production just doesn’t come around all that often.
Another way to put together a big score is through dominant pitching performances, and slates for Monday and Tuesday don’t feature a ton of pitching talent. Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Blake Snell and Luis Severino have been the four most valuable pitching assets on DraftKings this season using FantasyLabs’ Plus/Minus metric, and none of them figure to be available during the Gambling Olympics.
Overall, the under seems like a really strong bet here.
The Pick: Under 195.5 (-120)