The Senate succeeded in approving a procedural vote on Sunday night, allowing lawmakers to move forward on a bill that would unlock funding to reopen the federal government. While this doesn’t guarantee an end to the longest shutdown in U.S. history, it does raise hope for a return to normalcy soon.
A group of eight centrist Senate Democrats reached a deal with Republican leaders to secure the 60 votes needed to advance toward a compromise that would pay federal workers affected by the layoffs and fund shuttered agencies.
Still, divisions continue to stand in the way of a resolution. And for those interested in wagering on how many days the government shutdown will last, one platform allows users to place real money on the outcome across all 50 states. That platform is Kalshi, which blends traditional financial systems with cutting-edge prediction markets.
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How long will US Government Shutdown Last?
The Senate deal had an immediate impact on Kalshi’s markets. The likelihood that the shutdown will last more than 42 days remains high at 90%, but the odds of it extending beyond 43 and 44 days dropped to 52% and 37%, respectively.
President Donald Trump said he’s optimistic the situation will soon be resolved.
“It looks like we're getting close to the shutdown ending,” he said Sunday night upon returning to the White House after attending the game between the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders.
Democratic senators who broke ranks explained that Republicans had promised to vote in December to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies, which are set to expire on January 1.
Although including those subsidies in the budget has been one of the opposition’s key demands — and a central point of contention — the compromise hasn’t fully convinced Democratic Party leaders, exposing internal fractures and creating uncertainty about how it might affect upcoming votes to reopen the government.
Meanwhile, the odds of the shutdown lasting more than 45 days have fallen to 20%, and longer durations now carry less than a 10% chance across all markets beyond 48 days.
In the meantime, the shutdown has already led to suspended pay for hundreds of thousands of federal employees, the closure of essential services, and halted food assistance programs for low-income families. Airports have also seen major delays due to a shortage of air traffic controllers and security personnel.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
