With just under a year to go before the midterm elections, the battle for control of the House of Representatives is entering a decisive phase. The outcome will define the final stretch of Donald Trump’s second term and help shape the political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
All 435 seats in the lower chamber will be on the ballot on November 3, 2026, determining the makeup of the 120th Congress. Republicans currently hold a 219–213 edge — a slim, but functional, majority that allows them to set the agenda and steer committee leadership.
For those looking to wager on which party will control the House next year, one platform allows users across all 50 states to place real money on the outcome. That platform is Kalshi, which blends traditional financial markets with cutting-edge prediction systems.
Use the promo code below to claim $10 when signing up as a new user.
House Majority Outlook for 2026: Kalshi’s Odds
Democrats’ odds of taking back the House have risen to 72%. Recent polling, shaped by public frustration over the largest government shutdown in U.S. history and mounting inflation, points toward a favorable environment for the opposition.
Trump’s approval rating has also slipped to 38%, the lowest since his return to office, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. The decline reflects voter concerns over persistent cost-of-living pressures and renewed scrutiny tied to the investigation involving the late convicted sex offender, Jeffrey Epstein.
Even so, Republicans still retain a 27% chance on Kalshi of holding their majority. Supporters of this scenario argue that the administration could use its control of both chambers to stabilize its standing — and that Trump’s push for redistricting in several states could help the GOP maintain power after the midterms.
There is also an outside chance — albeit a small one — that control of the House could flip mid-session. Democrats are favored in two of the three upcoming special elections (Texas and New Jersey) triggered by resignations or deaths. Republicans, meanwhile, are favored to keep the vacant Tennessee seat.
Another vacancy will open when Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation takes effect in January, following her public split with Trump.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
