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2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds & 3 Longshot Picks, Including Stewart Cink

2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds & 3 Longshot Picks, Including Stewart Cink article feature image
Credit:

Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Stewart Cink.

  • The PGA TOUR heads to Monterey for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week.
  • The three-course tournament has a history of longshot victories.
  • Shane McNichol breaks down the three players he thinks have a strong chance of breaking through this week below.
Click here for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds via PointsBet
Player Odds
Patrick Cantlay +550
Jordan Spieth +1600
Jason Day +2000
Justin Rose +2000
Maverick McNealy +2000
Seamus Power +2200
Cameron Tringale +2800
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +4000
Lanto Griffin +4000
Ryan Palmer +4000
Brian Harman +5000
Denny McCarthy +5000
Kevin Kisner +5000
Mackenzie Hughes +5000
Mito Guillermo Pereira +5000
Kevin Streelman +6000
Matt Jones +6000
Matt Kuchar +6000
Michael Thompson +6000
Russell Knox +6000
Tom Hoge +6000
Aaron Rai +6600
Lucas Glover +6600
Min Woo Lee +6600
Andrew D. Putnam +7000
Charley Hoffman +7000
Brandt Snedeker +8000
Chez Reavie +8000
Chris Kirk +8000
Joel Dahmen +8000
Keith Mitchell +8000
Pat Perez +8000
Taylor Moore +8000
Dean Burmester +9000
Greyson Sigg +9000
Nick Taylor +9000
Patrick Rodgers +9000
Sahith Theegala +9000
Troy Merritt +9000
Adam Hadwin +10000
Alex Smalley +10000
Brandon Harkins +10000
Brendon Todd +10000
Cameron Champ +10000
Joseph Bramlett +10000
Matthew NeSmith +10000
Scott Stallings +10000
Stewart Cink +10000
Taylor Pendrith +10000
Adam Svensson +12500
Charl Schwartzel +12500
Davis Riley +12500
Dylan Frittelli +12500
Matthias Schwab +12500
Vincent Whaley +12500
Wyndham Clark +12500
Chad Ramey +15000
David Lipsky +15000
Doc Redman +15000
Hayden Buckley +15000
J. J. Spaun +15000
Kyle Stanley +15000
Peter Malnati +15000
Satoshi Kodaira +15000
Scott Piercy +15000
Stephan Jaeger +15000
Austin Eckroat +20000
Austin Smotherman +20000
Bo Hoag +20000
Camilo Villegas +20000
Kevin Chappell +20000
Kevin Tway +20000
Lee Hodges +20000
Mark Hubbard +20000
Nate Lashley +20000
Nick Hardy +20000
Peter Uihlein +20000
Ryan Armour +20000
Ryan Moore +20000
Trey Mullinax +20000
Aaron Baddeley +25000
Andrew Novak +25000
Beau Hossler +25000
Brandon Hagy +25000
Brandon Wu +25000
Brian Gay +25000
Brian Stuard +25000
Bronson Burgoon +25000
Dylan Wu +25000
Jimmy Walker +25000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +25000
Paul Barjon +25000
Tyler McCumber +25000
Vaughn Taylor +25000
Bill Haas +30000
Brice Garnett +30000
Cameron Percy +30000
Chan Kim +30000
Chase Seiffert +30000
Chesson Hadley +30000
Kurt Kitayama +30000
Luke Donald +30000
Scott Brown +30000
Ted Potter Jr +30000
Tyler Duncan +30000
Andrew Landry +30000
Ben Kohles +35000
John Murphy +35000
Sean O’Hair +35000
Sung Kang +35000
Alex Cejka +40000
Austin Cook +40000
Grayson Murray +40000
Jared Wolfe +40000
Jonathan Byrd +40000
Martin Trainer +40000
Max McGreevy +40000
Nick Watney +40000
Greg Chalmers +40000
Ben Crane +50000
Bo Van Pelt +50000
Brad Marek +50000
Brett Drewitt +50000
Callum Tarren +50000
Chris Stroud +50000
Curtis Thompson +50000
Darren Andrew Points +50000
David Hearn +50000
David Skinns +50000
Davis Love III +50000
Dawie Van Der Walt +50000
Jim Knous +50000
John Merrick +50000
John Senden +50000
Johnson Wagner +50000
Jonas Blixt +50000
Joshua Creel +50000
Justin Lower +50000
Kelly Kraft +50000
Mark Baldwin +50000
Michael Gligic +50000
Peter Jacobsen +50000
Richy Werenski +50000
Ricky Barnes +50000
Robert Garrigus +50000
Ryuji Imada +50000
Sang-Moon Bae +50000
Scott Gutschewski +50000
Seth Reeves +50000
Seung-yul Noh +50000
Tom Lehman +50000
D.J. Trahan +50000
Richard S. Johnson +50000
Tommy Gainey +50000

For fans and casual golfers watching from home, the PGA Tour’s annual trip to Pebble Beach is a highlight of the golf calendar. For the players on Tour, that is clearly no longer the case.

Many of the world’s best won’t be in the field this week, choosing instead to jet across the world to collect a guaranteed paycheck in Saudi Arabia. That leaves a curious group playing in Northern California. Yes, there are stars like Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, and Daniel Berger, but there are a host of hungry challengers looking to take advantage of a weak field and steal a win.

In fact, this event has recently become a haven for longshot winners.

Fun note for this week: Each of the last three even-year editions of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has been won by a pre-tourney triple-digit outright: Vaughn Taylor (200/1) in 2016; Ted Potter, Jr. (300/1) in 2018; and Nick Taylor (125/1) in 2020.

— Jason Sobel (@JasonSobelTAN) January 31, 2022

If you’re superstitious, we’re due for a big time underdog to earn a victory this weekend. This is a tournament that favors a hot putter and provides some real variance, thanks to its multi-course format. Based on that criteria, these three players have the track record to pull off a miracle.

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Stewart Cink +13000

When looking for this week’s long shots, this was the first name and number that jumped off the page. Age be damned, Stewart Cink has shown over the last year that he still can catch fire. He won two events last season, but his play hasn’t just been boom or bust. Among the players in this week’s field, he’s posted the eighth-best number in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 12 months.

From tee to green, Stewart Cink is still one of the best 75 players in the world. If his putter gets hot against a field as weak as this week’s event, Cink is going to have a chance to win on Sunday. I don’t know that I’m counting on it, but at odds this long, it’s worth a flier.

Hayden Buckley +15000

OK, so maybe Stewart Cink isn’t all boom or bust. Hayden Buckley? Very much boom or bust.

The 25-year-old from the University of Missouri is playing his rookie season on the PGA Tour after graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour last season. So far, he has played eight PGA TOUR events, with four missed cuts and three top 12 finishes.

But he wasn’t just beating up on fall’s weak fields — both the Sony Open and Shriners Children’s Open had stronger strength of fields than this week’s event at Pebble Beach.

Per Data Golf, Buckley has posted the sixth-best Strokes Gained Tee to Green of any player in this week’s field in the past six months. No matter what tour you’re playing on, that type of game translates. If you’re looking to catch lightning in a bottle, Buckley could be your guy.

Bet Hayden Buckley at Caesars and get a $5,000 risk-free first bet.

Nate Lashley +30000

Let’s talk about a mega-longshot.

Lashley has fallen to 318th in the world following a few really tough years. He has earned just one top 10 since January of 2020. That top 10, however, came here at the AT&T Pro-Am. Lashley also had his best ever finish in a major here at Pebble Beach at the U.S. Open in 2019.

According to the analytics pros at Data Golf, among those with at least eight rounds played at Pebble Beach, only Corey Pavin has outperformed Lashley in terms of Strokes Gained per round compared to expectation. If there’s a place for Lashley to pop, it’s here.

He played some stronger golf in the fall before settling into two missed cuts in his last two starts. For the smallest of silver linings, he played two good rounds after a dismal opening 77 at the American Express the last time out.

Lashley has proven the ability to win as a deep underdog. His only career PGA Tour win came as the 353rd ranked player in the world. At +2200 for top 10, I’ll take the dice roll.

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