2022 Scottish Open Odds, Picks, Predictions: Tommy Fleetwood, 5 More Bets for Renaissance Club
Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images. Pictured: PGA TOUR golfer Tommy Fleetwood.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Scottish Open odds via BetMGM
2022 Scottish Open Odds
|Min Woo Lee||+6600|
|Erik van Rooyen||+15000|
|Joachim B. Hansen||+40000|
|Daniel van Tonder||+50000|
As we prepare for the 150th Open Championship, the PGA TOUR will make one final stop to play the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. The tournament is a co-sanctioned event between the DP World Tour and PGA TOUR with a field comprised of members from both tours.
The Renaissance Club is a 7,293-yard Par 71. The Tom Doak design is a links style golf course and should provide players with the chance to acclimate to links golf as part of their preparation for the Open Championship.
The Scottish Open will play host to 156 golfers and the field is absolutely loaded. Fourteen of the top 15 players in the OWGR will be teeing it up this, with the only exception being Rory McIlroy.
The field features plenty of other star power including Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Joaquin Niemann, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler.
5 Key Stats For The Renaissance Club
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for The Renaissance Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
The modeling will have some limitations this week, as half the field has been playing primarily on the DP World Tour. Therefore, the more recent statistics for the players’ DP World Tour performances will not be included in the Strokes Gained metrics.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach will once again be the most important statistic this week. The course record is held by Bernd Weisberger, who has been one of the most precise iron players in the world throughout the course of his career.
SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Xander Schauffele (+24.9) (+2000)
- Max Homa (+24.3) (+5000)
- Cameron Smith (+23.7) (+2800)
- Sam Burns (+23.2) (+7500)
- Harold Varner III (+22.8) (+2800)
2. Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Off the Tee will certainly be a factor this week. The Renaissance club features relatively tight fairways, and longer hitters have fared well here in the past as well.
SG: Off The Tee over Past 24 rounds
- Jon Rahm (+28.4) (+1200)
- Cameron Young (+25.4) (+5500)
- Joaquin Niemann (+19.9) (+4000)
- Will Zalatoris (+19.7) (+2800)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+19.2) (+1400)
3. Birdie or Better: Gained
The difficulty of the Renaissance Club will be entirely dependent on the weather. If the wind doesn’t pick up, there’s a good chance the winning score could get close to the -20 range.
Birdie or Better: Gained Over Past 24 Rounds
- Cameron Smith (+26.4) (+2800)
- Scottie Scheffler (+24.2) (+1200)
- Xander Schauffele (+23.9) (+2000)
- Justin Thomas (+23.5) (+1200)
- Will Zalatoris (+23.3) (+2800)
4. Strokes Gained: Putting (Slow)
The greens in Scotland are typically much slower than many of the players who play primarily on the PGA Tour are used to. Therefore, it makes sense to evaluate which TOUR players have had success on slower greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Slow) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Brian Harman (+18.4) (+8000)
- Jordan Spieth (+17.7) (+3000)
- Sebastian Munoz (+10.2) (+8000)
- Andrew Putnam (+9.2) (+35000)
- Xander Schauffele (+8.8) (+2000)
5. Strokes Gained: Par 3
With five Par 3’s on the course, it’ll be crucial to play them effectively in order to contend.
Strokes Gained: Par 3 Over Past 24 Rounds
- Xander Schauffele (+19.4) (+2000)
- Luke Donald (+16.8) (+60000)
- Scottie Scheffler (+15.9) (+1200)
- Mito Pereira (+13.6) (+7000)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+13.6) (+5500)
The Genesis Scottish Open Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the six key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: App (27%), Birdie or Better (20%), SG: OTT (22%) Par 3 (14%), and SG: Putting (Slow) (17%).
- Xander Schauffele (+2000)
- Mito Pereira (+7000)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1200)
- Will Zalatoris (+2800)
- Jordan Spieth (+3000)
- Keegan Bradley (+6000)
- Max Homa (+5000)
- Justin Thomas (+1200)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800)
- Corey Conners (+5500)
2022 Genesis Scottish Open Best Bets
Cameron Smith (+3000, BetRivers)
Cameron Smith is coming off of a missed cut at this year’s U.S. Open, which is giving us a bit of a discount for this week’s Scottish Open. The missed cut was disappointing, but there wasn’t anything statistically that would lead me to believe that the Australian can’t bounce back quickly.
On paper, The Renaissance Club should be a perfect fit for Smith. I believe that golfers can get away with being a bit wayward off the tee this week, which is usually the part of his game that can get the 28-year-old into trouble. Smith ranks first in the field in his past 24 rounds in Birdie or Better: Gained. With the scores likely approaching -20 this week depending on the weather, his ability to pile up birdies will be a major asset.
Smith has seven career wins on the PGA TOUR and DP World TOUR combined. He carries a great deal of win equity at a discounted price. If he has a bounce back week with the irons, he will be tough to beat at this golf course.
Viktor Hovland (+3500, bet365)
Viktor Hovland has undoubtedly been struggling for much of 2022, and ever more so of late. It’s been over three months since he’s had a top-20 finish and his around the green numbers are downright atrocious. However, I feel that this week’s Scottish Open may just be the perfect spot to “buy low” on the talented 24-year-old.
Throughout his career, Hovland has done most of his best work on slow greens. He’s won at El Camaleon twice and Coco Beach once. Both of those golf courses feature some of the slowest greens that the players will see all season. The Renaissance Club should be a course where Hovland has an easier time chipping and putting considering all of the lightning-fast greens we’ve seen on TOUR in recent months.
Despite his recent struggles, Hovland is still one of the better drivers of the golf ball on TOUR. He’s gained strokes on the field off the tee in 28 of his past 32 starts, including six of his past seven when his finishes haven’t been quite up to his standards. Off the tee play proved to be important in last year’s edition of the event, and I expect it to play a major factor in 2022 as well.
The current form is concerning, but I’ll take the high upside of Viktor Hovland at a very fair number in Scotland.
Tommy Fleetwood (+5000, BetRivers)
Tommy Fleetwood is simply a different player when he’s across the pond in a links-style test. He’s already been incredibly close to winning this event in 2020 when he lost in a playoff to Aaron Rai and there’s no reason to believe he can’t challenge for a victory again in 2022.
The Englishman has proven he can compete in the strongest of fields in Open Championships, having finished 12th, second, and 33rd in his past three starts. It can be difficult to ignore Fleetwood’s struggles in the United States, but there are few who are better on and around the greens in Scotland than Tommy.
Fleetwood has been a consistent contender on the DP World Tour throughout his career. Perhaps a co-sanctioned event is exactly what he needs to get his long coveted first PGA TOUR victory.
Tyrrell Hatton (+6500, DraftKings)
Tyrrell Hatton isn’t in the best of form. With that being acknowledged, I firmly believe that this number is too big.
Hatton has finishes of 14th and 18th in his past two starts at The Renaissance Club, and this style of golf is far more suitable for him than the recent courses he’s been playing on the PGA TOUR. Links-style golf is where Hatton thrives and his success on the DP World Tour is too strong to be ignored in an event like this.
The Englishman has two wins at the Alfred Dunhill Links which is played at three different links courses in Scotland. If there were ever a time for Hatton to figure it out, this is the spot.
Johannes Veerman (+20000, BetRivers); Top 10 (+1400, DraftKings)
Johannes Veerman has the look and the swing of a golfer who should be a household name. However, the American is yet to put it all together thus far in his career.
Veerman was fantastic last year in his only start at The Renaissance Club as he finished in eighth place. He’s also played very well in the Irish Open (third last year), and that’s proven to have some correlation with contending at the Scottish Open as well.
The 29-year-old enters the event with three consecutive top-24 finishes and seems to be rounding into form. A win admittedly be an incredibly tall task in this field so a sprinkle on the top 10 at +1400 is a wise supplement to the outright bet.
Thorbjorn Olesen (+25000, BetRivers); Top 10 (+1800, BetRivers)
Thorbjorn Olesen is having yet another resurgence in 2022. In May, he won the Betfred British Masters by remarkably finishing eagle-birdie to close the tournament. After a few lackluster starts, Olesen showed some more life last week by finishing in a tie for eighth at the Horizon Irish Open. His closing 66 on Sunday should give him some momentum for the Scottish Open.
“Thunder Bear” has an exceptional track record on links courses in his career having won the Alfred Dunhill Links, which is also in Scotland. He’s a volatile bet, but if he’s on this week he can compete in a strong field.