2024 RBC Canadian Open Best Bets & Expert Picks for Hamilton G&CC
Via Getty Images/Action Network Design. Pictured (left to right): Ben Griffin & Zach Johnson.
The PGA Tour visits Hamilton, Ontario for the 2024 RBC Canadian Open as Nick Taylor looks to defend his title after taking down Tommy Fleetwood in an epic playoff last year. Let's get into our 2024 RBC Canadian Open best bets.
Spencer Aguiar, Matt Gannon and Tony Sartori have expert picks as 156 golfers will clash this week at Hamilton Golf & Country Club.
The course is a 7,084-yard par-70 designed by Harry S. Colt in 1916 and renovated by Martin Ebert in 2019 following the conclusion of the last Canadian Open at Hamilton G&CC that year.
Here's everything you need to know, along with our RBC Canadian Open best bets and expert picks for the weekend.
2024 RBC Canadian Open Best Bets & Expert Picks
Spencer Aguiar: Ben Griffin 60th or Better -120 (bet365)
You can tune into Links + Locks Tournament Betting Preview (dropping overnight on Wednesday morning) this week to hear my breakdown for the head-to-head market. That is usually the type of wager that lands in this article, but with two middling ones on my card this week, I decided to take a shot at Ben Griffin (-120) to land 60th or better at bet365.
I realize Griffin has missed his past two cuts at the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab Challenge, but last week's failure came on the number, not to mention that the PGA Championship was a course that likely was too long for his game.
If books want to undervalue a profile that demonstrated six top-39 finishes before the slight hiccup, I will gladly buy back into a golfer who graded inside the top 15 of my model through all iterations of projected performance.
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Matt Gannon: Cameron Young Top 20 +130 (FanDuel)
Young is one of the few golfers who has multiple paths to success here. Although the bomb and gouge is not the ideal strategy, he is one of the golfers who has that in his bag. Outside of that, Young has been solid on club-down/positional golf courses in his career. This field is weak, and Young is both extremely talented and due for a big one.
He is live to get into the mix this week, so a top 20 should be no issue.
Tony Sartori: Zach Johnson Top 20 +550 (FanDuel)
There is a lot you can say about Zach Johnson and his personality, but the one thing you can’t argue is that he enters this week in good form. Johnson has made the weekend in three consecutive tournaments, boasting two top-20 finishes over that stretch, which makes me love this number at +550 against a relatively weak field.
He is also one of the only handful of guys in this field who has played Hamilton twice professionally, doing so in 2019 and 2006. Johnson made the cut in both of those tournaments but failed to crack the top 20 either time, which is why this number is as long as +550.
With that said, he is in good form and has finished in the top 20 twice over his past three tournaments, so I want to ride the hot hand at this price.
2024 RBC Canadian Open Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Aguiar: Sahith Theegala +2200
- Gannon: Cameron Young +2200
- Sartori: Rory McIlroy +390
Mid-Tier Golfer to Back
- Aguiar: Tom Kim +4000
- Gannon: Erik Van Rooyen +5500
- Sartori: Taylor Pendrith +6600
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Best Long Shot
- Aguiar: Chandler Phillips 225-1
- Gannon: Seamus Power +9000
- Sartori: Robert MacIntyre +8000
Biggest Bust
- Aguiar: Erik Van Rooyen +5500
- Gannon: The Canadians
- Sartori: Shane Lowry +2200
Contrarian Player To Target
- Aguiar: Tom Kim +4000
- Gannon: Maverick McNealy +4000
- Sartori: Ryan Fox +10000
Your Betting Strategy for the 2024 RBC Canadian Open
Aguiar: Hamilton Golf & Country club has infrequently been featured in recent PGA Tour history, with the club last hosting the Canadian Open in 2019. That tournament included a tight and strategic test off the tee that diminished accuracy by over 7% versus a standard PGA Tour stop.
Martin Ebert recently rebuilt all 27 greens during his restoration to include your classic Bentgrass and Poa split. He also added new tees and modernized bunkers that will keep the facility's challenge from five years ago but do so in a fashion that plays better for today's game regarding positioning.
Gannon: This will be one of the shorter tracks this year on Tour. It also played as one of the shorter tracks in 2019 the last time this course hosted an event. Rory McIlroy obliterated this place with his driver that time in a seven-shot win, but I do not believe that will be the case this time around.
Even with the super wet conditions, bomb and gouge will be a tougher ask because this course is so short. Consequently, it will open up the path for the plotters to lean into their fairway prowess and stuff a ton of short irons close. I do not believe McIlroy will win his third Canadian Open as the field has a nice path for success.
Sartori: Hamilton has not hosted a Tour event since it held this tournament in 2019. McIlroy won that year, and while his driver was once again his best club, he utilized a more balanced approach than simply blitzing the golf course with his driver.
Hamilton is a relatively short course that will still reward strong driver play, but accuracy will also be important, especially when you consider that the rain this week will likely lead to an especially thick rough.
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