2024 RBC Canadian Open Sleeper Picks & Longshots

After a devastating week in the golf world with the news of Grayson Murray’s sudden passing, players are tasked with returning focus to competition this weekend at the 2024 RBC Canadian Open.

This year, the Canadian Open will be played at Hamilton Golf & Country Club in Ontario. Hamilton Golf & Country Club was the site of Rory McIlroy's 2019 RBC Canadian Open win, however the course looks much different than it did a few years ago. It underwent an $8.5 million renovation project led by Martin Ebert, which included adding distance and repositioning many bunkers.

Golf Digest named Hamilton Golf Club its “Best Renovation” in 2023. This year, the course will play 112 yards longer than it did in 2019. Narrow fairways and elevation changes are the name of the game this week, and while the course is not particularly long, accuracy off the tee and a strong short game will likely determine the champion.

McIlroy enters as the favorite, with +390 outright odds at bet365. He is joined by Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala, Shane Lowry and Cameron Young at the top of the oddsboard. I have identified three sleepers at 55-1 odds or longer, including two longshot at 110-1 and 120-1 odds.

Let's take a look at my 2024 RBC Canadian Open Sleeper Picks & Longshots below who have a chance to shock the golf world in Canada.

2024 RBC Canadian Open Sleeper Picks & Longshots

Adam Hadwin 55-1 (DraftKings)

While 55-1 isn’t exactly a longshot, I couldn't resist the value on a slept-on golfer who has a great shot to win the RBC Canadian Open this year.

Adam Hadwin has four top-10 finishes in just 14 events this season. He tied for fifth at the Valspar Championship and tied for fourth at the Genesis Invitational. He is in good form, and his strengths map well with what is needed to play well at Hamilton Golf Club.

For starters, Hadwin is accurate off the tee as he ranks 29th in Driving Accuracy on Tour this season. He should have no trouble finding the center of the fairway.

On top of that, the Moose Jaw, Canada native has been fantastic on the greens this season. He rates above the Tour average in nearly every major putting category, including ranking 55th in Putting Average and 38th in One-Putt Percentage.

Hadwin finished near the top of the leaderboard the last time this event was played on this course when he was sixth in 2019. He will be comfortable on this course and find a groove early.

Given his strengths and history here, seeing Hadwin at 55-1 is surprising. He is valued as the 20th most-likely golfer to win this week, and that feels about 10 spots too short.

Matt Kuchar 120-1 (bet365)

Our third and final sleeper pick for the RBC Canadian Open this weekend is a veteran golfer with a great track record at the course…Matt Kuchar.

The last time this event was played at Hamilton Golf & Country Club in 2019, Kuchar tied for fourth.

Kuchar enters in great form following his two best performances this season after tying for 17th this past weekend at Colonial and finishing in a tie for 34th at Quail Hollow three weeks ago.

Momentum is real on the PGA Tour, and Kuchar is trending in the right direction heading into an event and a course that he has a positive history at.
Moreover, his skill set translates extremely well to the course. Kuchar is a phenomenal putter, ranking 12th on tour this season in Putting overall. He is sixth in One-Putt %, and he will have a great chance to hole plenty of birdies this weekend in Ontario.

Given the elevation changes at Hamilton Golf Club, golfers will often find themselves in strange positions, needing to scramble their way to avoid disastrous scores on one hole. Kuchar is a pro at that, ranking 39th on Tour this season in SG: Around the Green.

With his short game prowess, Kuchar will be set up for success this weekend. At 120-1, it’s worth a shot.

Davis Riley 110-1 (bet365)

Editor's Note: As of Tuesday early afternoon, Riley has withdrawn from the RBC Canadian Open.

Can lightning strike twice? Never say never…

Davis Riley is coming off a dominant weekend at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He entered the final round on Sunday with a four-stroke lead over the best player in the world, Scottie Scheffler.

Many expected Scheffler to make a charge and storm up the leaderboard while Riley faltered on Sunday. However, the opposite happened. Riley was dominant and quickly increased his lead over Scheffler up to seven strokes on the front nine before coasting to a five-stroke victory.

He was strong throughout the bag in his victory as he ranked among the top seven in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (seventh), Approach the Green (second) and Putting (fifth).

Riley has been phenomenal over the last month. After missing the cut in seven of his first 11 events this season, Riley has now played into the weekend in four straight events, with three top-30 finishes along the way.

Nothing will jump out at you from Riley’s statistical profile indicating that he will crush this week, but he is a quality putter. He ranks 63rd on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting, and he is capable of catching fire with the short stick, as he demonstrated last weekend in Texas.

If his putter stays hot, Riley is under-valued at 110-1 this weekend.