Does anyone want to play in this week's Cognizant Classic? It sure seemed as if the top-end names in the field had different places they would rather be for the week, but that is what happens when you add intrigue and temptation in a place like Florida. Hell, it once got Jason Day to remove his name from the middle of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and head to Disney World for the weekend.
Instead of yelling, "there is a 'Snake in my Boot" like we may have heard from Day in 2019, players (who are left) are going to be discussing this week's "Bear Trap," an onslaught of holes on the back-nine that are known to wreak havoc on the field.
Advanced metrics are going to tell you this track is not like past iterations, when we used to see this tournament won in the single digits. However, I don't want bettors to completely negate the difficulty of the week.
This outcome was always going to be possible when they changed the formerly difficult par-four 10th into one of the easiest par-five setups at the track. A simple removal of bogeys and addition of birdies/eagles goes a long way in changing the output.
2026 Cognizant Classic Odds, Predictions: PGA Picks From Proven Model
Outright Winners
Max McGreevy 50/1
A lot of the 28/1 numbers on Ryan Gerard would have been great to place before that price dipped after the withdrawals from Jacob Bridgeman and Ben Griffin. Sub-20/t totals aren't as encouraging to buy into for a golfer who doesn't warrant that tag, but I thought Max McGreevy gave us an inflated total to consider and presented a not-too-dissimilar win equity projection.
My model placed McGreevy third on Bermuda greens over the last two years and also delivered top-10 grades for him in Weighted Scoring, Water + Bogey Avoidance and Weighted Ball-Striking for PGA National.
If that avoidance of water comes to fruition, some of the positive upside marks with his putter on Bermuda could help increase his position on the leaderboard.
Alex Smalley 50/1
The statistical profile is likely to look better than the recent form, as Alex Smalley hasn't posted a top-15 result since the Bermuda Championship in November.
I don't think that should yield a completely dreary outlook, given that his best finish in that timeframe came two weeks ago at Pebble Beach, where he landed 19th. The question would just become, "Is the statistical profile good enough to compound on his last tournament?"
I believe the answer is yes. Smalley is a golfer who has historically played well on Florida courses, ranking ninth in this field, and his Weighted Comp Course Production and SG: Total return on Bermuda lands him a few additional top-10 outputs inside of my model.
John Keefer 60/1
John Keefer has been a mainstay in my articles so far in 2026.
I have landed back-to-back head-to-head wins on him at the American Express and WM Phoenix Open and found him to be a legitimate top-10 option to consider this week, whether that is for DFS purposes or various iterations of the betting board.
My math had Keefer as one of only five players to crack the top-40 of all seven categories I weighed this week, with high-end marks landing from him in all ball-striking categories.
Matchups
Mac Meissner -111 over Mackenzie Hughes
We keep going back-and-forth on the play within this article, which hopefully means Mac Meissner over Mackenzie Hughes will land us a winner at the Cognizant Classic and not turn into Tom Kim over Matt Wallace or John Parry over Garrick Higgo being the right choice to highlight.
Look, the math behind this wager isn't as crystal clear as it may appear at first glance on my sheet. Yes, it is the most significant edge I have for the week (proper has fallen a bit since Monday and is now in the -139 zone). However, that 5.55% implied edge does show a strong wager that loves the profile of Meissner and is ignoring some of the shaky course history, which has seen him post nothing inside the top-50 over his two trips to the venue.
PGA National is not necessarily a course that screams rollover predictability. That helps both of these golfers out since Hughes hasn't exactly been pristine here himself. We do have a strong recent return from Hughes so far in 2026, with a Bermuda putting increase and a relatively safe floor with his irons to start the year if this play doesn't find itself getting to the window, but an overall profile of inconsistent iron play is always just around the corner when you rank 99th in the field with your irons at courses with water and 108th for Weighted Proximity when merging proximity buckets together for this venue.
My hope is that Meissner's lack of returns at this track will land more under overall proximity this go-around than it does pure "water avoidance."
Here is how he ranks when comparing overall proximity to only water. Miss the water, and the upside remains intact. Find the water, and we could be swimming with the fishes on this wager.
