When you are like me and trying to hit your first pre-event outright of the 2026 season, maybe going to a course where you have won in back-to-back years is what is needed to finally get yourself in the winner's circle when it comes to outright betting.
It is not all bad on that front since I was lucky enough to add Matthew Fitzpatrick (+425) on Saturday, but it feels like we are due to have something break our way on Sunday after multiple close calls over the past few weeks.
For those who have followed me for years, thank you for all the support you have shown me. It has been a crazy week from a career standpoint, but anyone who takes the time to tune into my articles is more helpful than you would ever realize. I love the friends I have been able to make in this space over the last eight years, and I wouldn't be able to do any of this without YOU, or the brilliant companies like Action Network, who have provided me a place to express my voice since 2022.
Big things are to come in 2026, and let's hope it starts with a profitable Houston Open to get the floodgates going!
2026 Houston Open Odds, Predictions: PGA Picks From Proven Model
I don't want to spend a ton of time touting plays (at numbers) that were DOA the second Scottie Scheffler withdrew from the field. It doesn't do a ton of good to showcase a card full of CLV that isn't usable for anyone reading this article.
I understand that is part of the game we play when the 3/1 favorite removes himself from the field. Still, I don't want to spend a ton of time doing more than merely touching on names I backed in the outright market.
In my opinion, our best bet moving forward is to view tangible movement and try to figure out where there is still value on the slate.
Here is my betting card for the week:
Min Woo Lee 25/1
Jake Knapp 28/1
Nicolai Hojgaard 38/1
Rasmus Hojgaard 70/1
Movement At Sharp Books
One of the things we can do when trying to highlight this board of chaos is figure out where sharp money is moving players to at some of the better locations.
That doesn't mean all moves are proper, and it definitely doesn't mean that we should buy into golfers at reduced prices. However, let's see who those names are on the slate, and, better yet, do other books have prices at a better return if we shop around?
Top Movers Since Scheffler Withdrawal On Tuesday
Top Movers Overall Since Monday
It isn't a huge shock to see a lot of those names above. There is probably a combination of public action and square movements attached to some of them, but it is interesting to see the eight guys on the slate to move over 30% from Monday land as Ricky Castillo, Marco Penge, Jake Knapp, Mac Meissner, Min Woo Lee, Ben Griffin, Nicolai Hojgaard and Michael Thorbjornsen.
The closing line value that I got on Knapp, Lee and Hojgaard is a good step toward trying to hit my first outright of 2026, but it is a strong list of names above, and one that only tells part of the story of this overcorrected gold rush at some locations.
Top Drifters Overall Since Monday
We are going to have an interesting conversation about Gary Woodland in a second, but I agree with the market's move up on most of these names. We really don't have many positive upside climbers in my win equity sheet, and outside of Woodland, there isn't a top-30 golfer in any iteration of overall, upside, or safety amongst the group.
Does that mean all are to be ignored in all contests or bets? Absolutely not! However, I am naturally going to find myself lower on most of these name when constructing DFS lineups.
Matchups
Gary Woodland -114 Over J.T. Poston
It is very important that we do not overreact to one tournament. That goes to those who excel the week prior and those who falter terribly and miss the cut.
We see the boom-or-bust nature of Gary Woodland's profile at first glance within the data. Woodland had produced nothing better than a 64th in six tournaments before last week. Yet, the market has been quick to ascend him back to his vintage territory — an area that is shown by him landing as one of the more popular $7,000 golfers on the slate for DFS contests.
I say this as I am giving Woodland as a matchup bet: Please realize there is still risk in this profile. The sharp markets are drifting Woodland up the board, even as money flows to him across sectors of the industry. That is never a great sign for overall safety or playability. However, this long iron + distance combination is extremely hard to ignore for him in my sheet and something that means a lot to me when you consider that I run my data from a long-term perspective. That is an area that should hurt him more than most.
Woodland's three top-21 finishes at this tournament over the last three years does play a bit of a factor in giving this play, and the onslaught of top-30 returns in my model for all "Weighted" categories of scoring only adds to this optimistic outlook of someone who has shown success here in the past and has rendered a lead-in result that proved to be proper last week.
That might seem obvious when you see a 14th-place result leading into a tournament, but that finish was very consistent with the projections within my data when you factor in actual ball-striking and merge it with long-term short-game expectations. I'd be lying if I said I trusted Woodland to avoid a Thursday or Friday blow-up to miss this cut, but a lot of my stance here will go against J.T. Poston and his lack of distance throughout the bag.
There is a chance we lose in a grueling fashion, with Poston generating his typical 50th+ place finish and Woodland missing the cut, but I think this is the best way that I want to attack someone who is highly volatile on the slate. DFS at 12-15% ownership doesn't feel like the optimal path forward, and outright tickets are probably trying to fully turn the clock back into something we haven't seen from him in quite some time.
Give me him in a matchup against someone that I do not trust for pure upside, and I will hope for the best that Woodland doesn't turn back into a pumpkin this week.
When is the Houston Open?
The 2026 Houston Open tees off on Thursday, March 26, 2026.
- What: 2026 Houston Open
- When: March 26-29, 2026
- Where: Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston, Texas.
- Par: 70
- Length: 7,475
- Purse: $9.9 million
Where to Watch the Houston Open?
2026 Houston Open TV Schedule
Round 1: Thursday, March 26
- Live stream: ESPN+ (8:15 a.m. to 7 p.m. ET)
- TV coverage: Golf Channel (3 to 7 p.m. ET)
Round 2: Friday, March 27
- Live stream: ESPN+ (8:15 a.m. to 7 p.m. ET)
- TV coverage: Golf Channel (3 to 7 p.m. ET)
Round 3: Saturday, March 28
- Live stream: ESPN+ (7:45 a.m. to 6 p.m.)
- TV coverage: Golf Channel (1 to 3 p.m. ET); NBC (3 to 6 p.m. ET)
Round 4: Sunday, March 29
- Live stream: ESPN+ (7:45 a.m. to 6 p.m.)
- TV coverage: Golf Channel (1 to 3 p.m. ET); NBC (3 to 6 p.m. ET)
