Ah, the Masters! The azaleas. The pimento cheese. The birds chirping from the trees and, apparently, from Jason Day's clothing. What a wonderful time in the world.
If you are new to golf or to my work, I appreciate you taking the time to check out some of my thoughts. Augusta is the most iconic and predictable venue on tour, which isn't as great for betting as it might seem. We can dive deeper into why that might be the case in this article, but I do want to thank everyone for tuning in and giving this a read. Without you guys, I couldn't do what I love!
Let's get right into things for the week because there is a lot to talk about from a betting perspective, and see if we can find any angles to attack in various markets.
2026 Masters Picks, Odds: Golf Projections From Proven Model
Jon Rahm +1200
We live in a different world as an X/social media group of content providers or readers. If you did nothing other than look at social media and try to find betting cards, you are going to see the same names over and over again. Jon Rahm, Cameron Young, Matthew Fitzpatrick. We can stretch that further and add a few more options, but I state it that way because our ecosystem is still very small compared to the overall landscape of bettors.
You don't have to look any further than books tweeting out their biggest liabilities and how very few of the names I mentioned actually land on that list. For X, 100%. For the real world, no. JustinRose, Ludvig Aberg, and Bryson DeChambeau currently carry more liability than the three golfers I named in the majority of shops, which is relevant because our sub-section would not necessarily agree.
Good players who are in good form win the Masters. It is a story as old as time. It is why a lot of "our" people are backing the hot names of Fitzpatrick or Young over going straight to the top of the board, but I would argue that the top of the board has their in-form name in Rahm. We just don't get to see it weekly on the PGA Tour to justify a 12/1 (or less) price.
I run my model to the hundredth decimal place. It is very rare for two players to tie for win equity in my sheet. However, Rahm and Scottie Scheffler ended up landing as EXACT co-favorites on the board, yielding prices at roughly 7.5/1 being their accurate going rate.
That return is useful for this wager, since markets opened him a little too high due to the sheer lack of data we get weekly. If you extrapolate out some of the metrics of what we have gotten from his hot run, you will see a golfer who is trending as the second-best name in golf for Strokes Gained over the last four weeks (Min Woo Lee is interestingly number one).
You will also get an in-form golfer who is excelling with his tee-to-green metrics and renders a second-place grade in my model over the last two years when merging all the data on how a player fits for Augusta (Scheffler is not as interestingly number one here).
I will take a swing on his good form, great course fit and the overall questions at the top of the board around him.
Xander Schauffele +2000
The discussion nobody is ready to have: What does a victory at the Masters do for the legacy of Xander Schauffele?
You could go back to this time in 2024 and see a golfer who had zero majors entering this tournament and convince yourself that it might not happen for him in his career. I did not believe that to be the case because the data was always too strong around him, but a lot can change if you don't have one at a certain point and find yourself chasing late into your 30s.
Someone like Lee Westwood, who posted 19 top-10 finishes, could never get one to his name. Schauffele, with 12 top-10s after this Masters in 2024, was on a better pace to find his major, but weirder things have happened. It takes one slump in these to derail everything.
With a victory this week, Schauffele will have rattled off three in eight majors, with the career grand slam now in his sights, needing just the U.S. Open to complete the slam. We are getting entirely ahead of ourselves by trying to slip the Green Jacket onto his shoulders, but the question remains: What does a victory at the Masters do for the legacy of Schauffele? If he gets it, we have to raise his stature in golf history.
Harris English +14500
If there is any truth to this board having some openings at the top, why not consider someone who finished second twice last year at the PGA Championship and the Open?
English has been a staple of consistency so far this year, churning out seven top-28 finishes in eight events. While the ceiling in those tournaments will leave a lot to be desired, the short-game acumen and increase in driving this season can pay dividends if we are looking for a spike week.
Maverick McNealy to Make the Cut
McNealy will be one of my biggest liabilities this week because of all the made-cut exposure I am taking on for Augusta. You can hear more of my thoughts on this inside my Discord channel or on the Action Network podcast.
Tommy Fleetwood (-154) Over Justin Rose
I've given a very similar answer this week on a few different podcasts. Shoutout to Andy Lack, Byron LindequeandGeoff Fienberg for letting me talk shop with them for the Masters. There's a reason this space is as sharp as it's ever been, and it stems from personalities like theirs reaching an audience that makes people better bettors.
The problem with the sharp information that is released, and quite frankly, the overall sentiment around the Masters being a tournament that is predictable in its nature, is that books are very quick to act in a general direction when it comes to pricing.
That can be a good thing if markets shift too far in any given direction. However, it is this hodgepodge of juiced-up returns from books in most of these pairings, with the movement almost 100% in agreement with the proper shifts, that has me most worried. You don't have to look any further than the top 10-15 mismatches in my model to see that pretty much every single one starts at -150 for the going rate. I'd classify that as frustrating, to say the least.
When I ran my model this week, Justin Rose graded as the most overpriced outright number in the space. That doesn't necessarily mean that all matchups are going to yield value, although what it should suggest at the very core of the answer is that Rose has found himself next to a group of names that are all generating a higher-than-projected output when we directly compare it to what he has going on from a statistical perspective.
Just over 60% implied probability at the -154 total is an extreme starting point, but my numbers had this closer to 65% (above -190) as the proper going rate for this pairing. I typically need at least 3%+ to even consider laying this much juice. I get value is value, but I don't love it as much for golf when it's accompanied by volatility and human factors beyond anyone's control.
That doesn't mean it's a deterrent to this bet, because Fleetwood grades as a value for me across the board, but it is a true Masters board of shops being more accurate than usual, which theoretically shrinks our edge in a lot of spots.
I am going to bet on my math saying we have an underpriced name versus an overpriced golfer, but there is a reason chalk hits at the Masters at a higher rate than any other tournament.
