The U.S. Open returns to one of the toughest venues in golf: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York.
While the world's best compete for the third major championship of the season, there are more ways to bet on the tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday.
For more instant gratification, we turn to the first-round leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite U.S. Open first-round leader picks and PGA Tour predictions for Thursday's opening round.
U.S. Open First-Round Leader Picks, Predictions
First-Round Leader Pick: Jon Rahm +3300 — FanDuel
Driving is essential this week. The course is long and extremely penal if players miss the fairway, making both distance and accuracy critical for success.
Thick, rough and knee-high fescue surrounds the course, making precise approach shots into its challenging green complexes extremely difficult if you hit a poor drive. That setup makes Jon Rahm a strong option this week.
One of the tournament favorites, Rahm enters in outstanding form with two wins and five runner-up finishes over his past 11 tournaments. While many of those results came on LIV, one of the runner-up finishes was at the most recent major, the PGA Championship.
Rahm is one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world, combining accuracy with elite distance. He finished sixth in strokes gained: off the tee at the PGA Championship.
First-Round Leader Pick: Ludvig Aberg +3300 — BetMGM
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Ludvig Aberg. Like Rahm, Aberg fits this course well.
Entering this week, he ranks in the 97th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: off the tee. He is also a strong starter and enters this tournament in good form.
Aberg ranks above average on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring and has posted six top-eight finishes over his past nine tournaments.
As noted above, the greens are difficult to navigate. They feature significant undulation and are expected to play firm and fast in summer conditions.
Aberg has proven capable on challenging greens, ranking in the 89th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. He performs well across all key putting ranges (2-5 feet, 5-30 feet and 30-plus feet), ranking in the top quarter of the Tour in each.
