Editor's Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose subscribers have reported more than $10 million in pool winnings across all sports using their tools.
If you are looking for the best Cognizant Classic One and Done picks, the first thing to understand is that this week is not a typical “pick the best golfer” exercise. The field looks different, the course plays differently than it used to, and the picks that look obvious on the surface are not always the right call.
The Cognizant Classic has a $9.6 million purse with $1,656,000 going to the winner, which puts it in the lower tier of non-Signature Events. The Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship (big purse tournaments) are both right around the corner, and that should shape every decision you make this week.
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2026 Cognizant Classic Field Overview
The Cognizant Classic heads to PGA National's Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, and the field this week is thinner than usual. Jacob Bridgeman, who won last week at Riviera, withdrew along with Ben Griffin, Adam Scott, and Patrick Rodgers. With the Arnold Palmer and THE PLAYERS both ahead, most of the tour's top players are sitting this one out.
The result is a wide-open board where nobody is shorter than around 14 to 1. That kind of week creates real opportunity for One and Done picks, assuming you approach it the right way.
Can You Trust Course History at PGA National?
There is also an important course note this week. PGA National used to be one of the grindiest tests on the PGA Tour, the kind of place where single digits under par could win the whole thing.
That changed last year when the course was overseeded, which made the fairways and greens much easier to hold. Jake Knapp opened with a 59 in round one. This is a birdie-fest environment now, and if you are leaning on traditional course history here, you may be working from the wrong blueprint.
The shift from POA greens in California to Bermuda in Florida is also worth noting. The putting surfaces are a completely different experience, which means some players who struggled with the putter in California may be in much better shape this week.
Cognizant Classic Odds To Win
Here are the top golfers by outright win odds heading into the week:
- Shane Lowry +1400
- Ryan Gerard +1600
- Nikolai Hojgaard +1800
- Michael Thorbjornsen +3000
- Max McGreevy +3500
- Keith Mitchell +3500
- Daniel Berger +4000
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +4000
- Johnny Keefer +5000
- David Ford +11000
There are no “clear-cut” top favorites this week, which is part of what makes the Cognizant Classic very interesting from a One and Done strategy standpoint.
OAD Pick Popularity Concentrated at the Top
With a weaker field and several withdrawals pulling names off the board, pick popularity is going to be unusually concentrated this week.
At PoolGenius, we project Shane Lowry at 20%+ ownership, which would be among the highest single-player projections of the season. Ryan Gerard is projected around 15%, and Nicolai Hojgaard is not far behind at roughly 13%.
What This Means for Your Picks
That kind of top-heavy distribution changes the math in larger pools. When three players account for more than half the picks in a pool, you only need one of them to miss for the field to shift dramatically in your favor.
In a smaller pool where you just need to outlast a manageable number of opponents, riding the chalk is fine. In a bigger pool where separation matters, this week rewards the players willing to look past the top few names.
5 Best Cognizant Classic One and Done Picks (2026)
There is no single right answer without knowing your pool size, format, payout structure, and which golfers you have already burned. That said, these five picks offer strong combinations of win equity, future value, and pick popularity across a wide range of pool types.
- Nicolai Hojgaard: He ranks high in the PoolGenius model this week. Hojgaard is one of the better ball strikers on tour right now over any recent sample you want to use, and he has something to play for this week as he tries to solidify his spot in upcoming Signature Events. The popularity at 13% is not nothing, but the win equity backs it up.
- Michael Thorbjornsen: His driving distance is a genuine weapon, and a course that now plays more like a birdie opportunity than a survival test suits his ceiling. He had every chance to win at the WM Phoenix Open as well. For a player at his talent level, his projected ownership is manageable.
- Max McGreevy: This is the leverage play of the week. He sits inside the top 10 in outright odds but is projected at only around 1 to 3% ownership. He finished fourth here last year, struggled with the putter in California like a lot of the field, and his ball-striking numbers are strong enough to make him a genuine contender at this course.
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen: He is off to a quiet start on the PGA Tour this year, but the European form tells a different story. He won the Australian Open in the fall in a field that included Si Woo Kim and Adam Scott, finished third at the DP World Tour Championship one shot out of a playoff with Matt Fitzpatrick and Rory McIlroy, and posted another top-three in the Spanish Open. He is accurate off the tee, ranks sixth in this field in birdie or better rate over his last 24 PGA Tour rounds, and is priced around 40 to 1. Popularity should be low enough that this is a genuine leverage spot.
- Shane Lowry: If you want the conservative play and are in a smaller pool where chalk is acceptable, Lowry is a very realistic choice at the top of the board. He has a top-five record here, and his course history is real. The case against him is that his par-five scoring and birdie-creation numbers do not fit the current PGA National scoring environment as well as they once did, and at 24% projected ownership, you will have a lot of company. In smaller pools or pools where you have fewer options left, he can make sense. In larger fields, the high ownership works against you.
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The hardest part of Cognizant Classic One and Done picks is not finding a name you like. It is knowing whether that pick actually fits your season plan, how popular it will be, and what you are giving up down the road.
Most One and Done players look at odds and recent results and stop there. The players who consistently cash are accounting for projected pick popularity, purse leverage across the full schedule, and the downstream effects of spending a specific golfer now versus saving him for a higher-value spot.
The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Tool handles all of it in one place. It combines win equity, future value, and projected pick popularity into a single grade, then maps out a season plan so every pick decision has context beyond just this week.
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