Following a grueling PGA Championship, the PGA Tour heads to Texas with The CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch.
While Scottie Scheffler is a clear favorite to win this tournament, there are more ways to bet on the tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday.
For more instant gratification, we turn to the first-round leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite CJ Cup Byron Nelson first-round leader picks and PGA Tour predictions for Thursday's opening round.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson First-Round Leader Picks, Predictions
First-Round Leader Pick: Brooks Koepka (+3300, DraftKings)
TPC Craig Ranch stretches nearly 7,400 yards and plays as a long course by PGA Tour standards. As a result, roughly 40% of approach shots come from 200-plus yards, well above the Tour average.
Despite its length, the course is easy to score on due to its openness and lack of severe penalty areas. The receptive greens allow strong long-iron players to generate numerous birdie and eagle opportunities.
This type of birdie-heavy setup favors players with power, making Brooks Koepka a strong candidate. This season, Koepka ranks third on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage on approach shots from 200-plus yards.
First-Round Leader Pick: Wyndham Clark (+5500, DraftKings)
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Wyndham Clark. He has been a strong starter this season, ranking above the PGA Tour average in first-round scoring.
Clark also fits this course well. Entering this week, he ranks 26th on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage on approach shots from 200-plus yards.
In a low-scoring event, efficiency on and around the greens becomes critical. Players must convert opportunities and avoid mistakes to keep pace.
Clark’s short game supports that need. He has used it to finish inside the top 21 in three of his past four tournaments.
On par 3s and par 4s, he will need to hit precise approach shots to create birdie chances on these receptive greens. On par 5s, his long-iron ability should create eagle opportunities, often leaving him with lengthy putts to do so.
Clark is capable in those situations. On the PGA Tour, he ranks in the 73rd percentile in strokes gained: putting from 2-5 feet and from 30-plus feet.
