We turn our attention to The CJ Cup Byron Nelson in McKinney, Texas.
We had a surprise winner at the PGA Championship last week. With names like Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, Rory McIlroy, and Scottie Scheffler in the mix on Sunday, it felt inevitable that one of them would find their way to the top of the leaderboard. However, Aaron Rai played a flawless final 10 holes (6-under par) and ran away from the field.
Typically, the CJ Cup would be an unexciting event, given the weaker field and it being the week after a major, but I can't wait to have another full-field event with a cut. The Signature Events have somehow made the non-Signature Events more appealing to bettors and DFS players.
Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite (+190), which has led to some enticing outright numbers on the rest of the field. Let's dive into the course preview and the best for this week.
Let's take a look at my 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks and PGA TOUR predictions for this week's event.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson Preview: TPC Craig Ranch
TPC Craig Ranch is a Par 71 that measures 7,385 yards. The course has undergone a restoration over the last couple of years.
Before the 2025 edition of this event, the fairways were narrowed, the rough was higher, and the fairways were overseeded with ryegrass.
Scheffler won with a score of -31, so it felt like the course played easier than usual, but it actually played a half-shot more difficult on average.
The restoration continued this year, as all 18 of the green complexes were replaced and now feature bentgrass. The fairways have been overseeded with zoysiagrass, and the rough is now made of bermudagrass.
The course was also shortened by nearly 200 yards, so it'll be interesting to see if the course plays any different this year.
We typically see news greens play more firm than the old ones, but it's expected to rain all week, so the course should be extremely soft.
The winning score at this event has been at least -23 in each of the last five years, and with the soft conditions expected, I don't expect that trend to get broken this week.
We typically see most of these birdie-fests turn into putting contests, because most of the field is hitting fairways and greens at a high rate.
However, this particular birdie-fest has been more about ball striking than a hot putter. You'll have to putt well to win, but I'm focusing most of my attention on solid tee-to-green golfers.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson Picks, Predictions
Because Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite this week, we can look at this in two ways.
If he wins, we should have seen it coming. But if he doesn't win, him being such a big favorite is great news for the rest of the field.
You can certainly bet the Winner Without Scheffler market, but I'm taking my chances with the standard outright market.
Jordan Spieth to Win +1750 (DraftKings)
It doesn't feel right betting a golfer to win when he doesn't have a top-10 finish all year, but I've seen enough from Spieth to make my card this week.
He's made 11 straight cuts with six top-20 finishes during that stretch, and it seems like he has one bad round at every event that holds him back from being in contention.
The underlying statistics are encouraging, as he's in the top-30 in this field in all four of the strokes gained categories over the last four months.
He loves his Texas golf, as he's had an elite track record at TPC Craig Ranch in the past, posting three top 10 finishes in his last four starts.
Davis Thompson to Win +4900 (DraftKings) / Top-5 +810 (DraftKings)
Thompson has never played well at this event, but statistically, course history matters less here than it does at almost any course on the PGA TOUR (especially with the restoration).
Thompson is a streaky golfer who comes into the week in excellent form. He has finished in the top 15 in each of his last three events.
In the two events with ShotLink data, he gained 5.7 (Myrtle Beach Classic) and 8.8 (Valero Texas Open) strokes tee-to-green.
It's a good course fit on paper, and he should have plenty of confidence heading into the week.
Eric Cole to Win +8400 (0.5 units DraftKings) / Top-10 +600 (DraftKings)
With this being a birdie-fest on a course with new greens and rain in the forecast all week, I think we could see a surprise winner.
When Cole gets hot with his irons, he can make as many birdies as anyone. That's a good recipe for success at TPC Craig Ranch.
I do worry about his driver a bit, but missing the fairways hasn't been a huge penalty here in the past. Cole is coming off back-to-back sixth-place finishes at the Myrtle Beach Classic and the Valero Texas Open.
He gained over eight strokes on approach, five strokes around the green, and eight strokes putting in those two events. He seems to like this course, as he's finished T5 and T23 in his last two appearances.
Austin Eckroat to Win +9800 (0.5 units DraftKings) / Top-10 +660 (DraftKings)
Eckroat grades out as the 15th best golfer in my model this week, which well eclipses his spot on the outright betting board.
He has quietly posted three straight top 20 finishes with excellent tee-to-green metrics during that stretch. He's a good driver of the ball and fourth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last four months.
He's also had a career year on and around the greens. He missed the cut here last year, but he finished runner-up here in 2023.
Thorbjorn Olesen to Win +10000 (0.5 units FanDuel) / Top-10 +650 (FanDuel)
Olesen hasn't played in a professional event in seven weeks, so I'm hoping rust won't be an issue. Last year, he had finished T29.
With so many Signature Events and majors recently, there haven't been many starts for a lot of the fringe golfers on the PGA TOUR.
While we don't have a ton of recent form to lean on, I do love the course fit for Olesen. He's long and straight off the tee, he's an excellent iron player, and bentgrass is by far his best putting surface.
Doug Ghim to Win +10000 (0.5 units FanDuel) / Top-10 +750 (FanDuel)
My final long-shot of the week is Ghim, who has long been one of the most underrated ball strikers on the PGA TOUR.
His iron play has dipped a little this year, but he is still gaining an average of 0.49 strokes per round with his irons. He's a great total driver of the ball, and he's an underrated scrambler.
The problem is, he's one of the worst putters in the field, which is why he's 100-to-1 to win this week.
Ghim has a great track record in Texas and has finished in the top-35 at this event in 2 of the last 3 years.
Good luck this week!
